19P.Hadi 風切阻撓發展受限NRL暫撤

KINGRIC · 2014-3-11 17:13

現在就連他也被JTWC宣告死亡了
被重新定位兼Final Warning...... 不過應該是暫時的
GFS數值到目前為止皆看好它的發展
後期發展仍值得觀察

t02436 · 2014-3-12 06:44

19Z加評Medium

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19P) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 17.1S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING
LLCC. A 111509Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. AN OLDER 111149Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER (10 TO 15 KNOT) CORE WINDS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATES REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM

甜心 · 2014-3-12 16:16

本帖最後由甜心於 2014-3-12 16:43 編輯

19p今天雲圖看起來結構很稀疏越來越糟糕說，是風切太大嗎還是被旁邊東方的大旋風干擾到??...。

謝大大提醒已修正

甜心 · 2014-3-13 16:12

說到19p.Hadi風暴今天實在看不出來它跑去那了不過從雲圖觀察疑似併入這團低壓雲帶裡了...。

KINGRIC · 2014-3-13 18:57

受限於垂直風切
結構趨於散架...
目前無論從衛星雲圖貨式底層掃瞄皆看不出有LLCC的存在...
不過GFS仍持續看好掉頭後有再度增強的可能

粗略定位大約是在X的地方

t02436 · 2014-3-13 20:45

中心過160E
由BoM轉交FMS發報
FMS早上編號20F

只是定位輸入有誤
下午第二報才確定是19P

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD20F [1000HPA] WAS
ANALYSED NEAR 12.5S 165.2E
AT 130600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TD20F SLOW MOVING. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION DECREASED IN
AREAL EXTENT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
SYSTEM LIES NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND
MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.