t02436

JTWC發布TCFA!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
153.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 150.6E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
062353Z METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE BROAD LLCC. A 062353Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER BUT PROVIDES EVIDENCE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS
ISLAND INDICATE 25 TO 30 KNOT SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES
OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

甜心

t02436 發表於 2014-3-7 11:37
JTWC發布TCFA!

嗯...這隻小傢伙過去不斷增強跟吸收水氣彩色雲圖上已經看的出風暴的態勢了，不知道未來路徑預測這段時間有沒有改變過不然北澳跟東北澳恐怕要面臨雙旋侵襲了。

甜心

今天雲圖看起來96p依然小小一隻不過螺旋程度卻相當的深，依目前狀況看來這知過去一天威力強度應該有增加不少。

KINGRIC

BOM認為
這個系統有機會在澳洲東北近海近岸爆發
上看澳式C2 下一報可望升格命名
不過LLCC似乎有裸奔的情形
接下來就看他有沒有機會再登陸前整合起來

新細明體

ASCAT掃出35KT


Flinders Reef實測36KT

The tropical low has barely developed over the past few days, and retains the
structure of an asymmetric, broad monsoon depression. Latest Ascat pass at 1109
UTC depicted this structure, and showed an annulus of gales between 100 and 200
nm from the centre to the south of the system, with winds below gale elsewhere.

BOM認為系統仍帶有季風低壓性質，因此不作出升格

KINGRIC

BOM 這一報又再度不再上望澳式C2了
對流在最近這幾個小時要爆發起來的跡象
不過可惜主要對流似乎仍沒有完全覆蓋在中心附近

KINGRIC

JTWC因對流已經被風切切離
且LLCC中心難以定位
老J已於剛剛取消了TCFA

THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW080200). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 149.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 226 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EVEN AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE LLCC BECOMING ILL-DEFINED, THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

t02436

降評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7S
149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 226 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EVEN
AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
AND THE LLCC BECOMING ILL-DEFINED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
REMAINS MEDIUM.