15S.Guito 顛峰已過對流略減緯度漸高減弱中＊

t02436 · 2014-2-18 18:10

MFR編號12R
上望50KT
預計南移穿越莫三比克海峽

krichard2011 · 2014-2-18 20:42

這隻螺旋性相當得好
看起來底層應該是已經正在建立當中了
雖然從稍早的底層掃描來看
中心附近深層對流似乎稍弱
不過從最近的色調強化雲圖來看
中心附近似乎又開始爆出對流
應該是正在嘗試補足中心對流不足的部分

t02436 · 2014-2-18 20:52

JTWC12Z給35Kts升格15S

等MFR分析T2.5即可給予命名

krichard2011 · 2014-2-19 09:23

MFR正式升格 MTS 命名 Guito
強度跳升 40 kt 上看60 kt(STS)

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/12/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (GUITO)
2.A POSITION 2014/02/19 AT 0000 UTC:
  WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 40.0 E
  (NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  28 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 170
  34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
  12H: 2014/02/19 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
  24H: 2014/02/20 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  36H: 2014/02/20 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  48H: 2014/02/21 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  60H: 2014/02/21 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  72H: 2014/02/22 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  96H: 2014/02/23 00 UTC: 38.4 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  120H: 2014/02/24 00 UTC: 39.5 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
  T=3.0- AND CI=3.0-
  2120Z OSCAT AND VERY PARTIAL 1907Z ASCAT SWATHS SHOWS WITH A RATHER