新細明體

  強烈熱帶風暴  
   編號：12 R (15 S)
   名稱：Guito

  基本資料     
    擾動編號日期：2014  年 02 月 13 日 02 時
　命名日期　　：2014  年 02 月 19 日 09 時
　消散日期　　：2014  年 02 月 23 日 08 時
　登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國海軍 (JTWC)     ：   65  kts (  CAT 1  )
    留尼旺氣象部(MFR)：   60  kts (   STS    )
    海平面最低氣壓   　：  977 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
90S INVEST 140212 1800  16.2S   41.9E SHEM   15  1010


以上資料來自 : JTWC、MFR、颱風論壇整理製作

甜心

新細明體 大大它看起來感覺快瓦解崩散，這傢伙還有後期發展性可期待嗎??

jwpk9899

這坨擾動雖然說目前型態稍微散了點
但是莫三比克海峽充滿了爆發傳奇的~
過去也有幾個看似不會強的熱帶氣旋在這裡整個大爆發
目前定位點的風切稍微強的點 但是如果是雲圖中 螺旋雲系中間點的位置風切很微弱
而目前整個莫三比克海峽的水氣量也還算足夠(不過海峽最南端就有乾一點了
另外EC及GFS兩大機構也認為他會發展(PS:這是上午的預測圖了)

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.6S 38.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 499 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION CURRENTLY
TRACKING OVER LAND ALONG THE EAST COAST MOZAMBIQUE. A 150024Z 37 GHZ
SSMI IMAGE INDICATES GENERALLY BROAD TURNING IN THE AREA WITH THE
SYSTEM CENTER OVER LAND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7S
36.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 37.0E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERIES OF AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS DISTURBANCE LIES
SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE LLCC IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DURING THE NEXT DAY,
WHERE HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT.
MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND MULTIPLE MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

jwpk9899

JTWC發出TCFA 預估未來將先往莫三比克海峽中部移動

krichard2011

整個對流猛烈爆發出來
螺旋性也相當明顯
照這個樣子 稍後MFR應該就有機會編號囉...

開梅

可是離陸地實在太近，他未來的發展真讓人捏一把冷汗啊