t02436

根據BoM最新一報
稍早已經在昆士蘭省登陸
24小時後就會再繞出海

martin191919

已經登陸

TPPS11 PGTW 030935
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94P (SE OF GULF OF CARPENTARIA)
B. 03/0832Z
C. 17.1S
D. 141.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   SCHALIN

新細明體

Cyclone intensity estimated based on well defined radar
signature combined with near gales from surface observations northwest of the
centre earlier today.

Mornington Island 實測 20KT—這就是BOM聲稱的「near gales」

上次Dylan ASCAT風場掃出40KT+，BOM遲遲不升格
Fletcher 這麼爛的實測也可以升格...
我只能表示無語了...

t02436

取消TCFA

THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 030400). THE AREA OF CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 131.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MOVED INLAND AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ERODE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERIC MODELS ARE SPREAD OUT IN
PROJECTING WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK; HOWEVER, MOST OF THEM KEEP IT
OVER LAND AND NONE OF THEM PREDICT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
DUE TO THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

t02436

節錄BoM路徑註記




Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fletcher has recently shown signs of adopting a westerly motion into the far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria.The system may briefly redevelop into a minimal tropical cyclone during today


認為已經重新出海進入卡奔塔利亞灣
並於6小時後會重新增強為澳式C1
螺旋性有對流也有加強
就看老J要不要升13P了
只是感覺有點難==
後期可以關注與95S的互動

krichard2011

看似發展的機會幾乎沒有了
JTWC取消評級 連BOM都撤掉了

martin191919

JTWC:DISSIPATED

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 140.7E
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS