94P.Fletcher 中心撞陸結構散架＊

t02436 · 2014-2-1 17:23

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 12:42 編輯

  一級熱帶氣旋

編號：08 U (94 P)
名稱：Fletcher
  基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2014 年 02 月 01 日 17  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 02 月 03 日 12 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 02 月 07 日 14 時
　登陸地點　　：澳洲昆士蘭省諾曼頓
  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ： 30 kts(T.Disturbance)
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)： 35 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓    ：992  百帕

  過去路徑圖

註:由於該氣旋JTWC未編國際號，定位資料已遺失，故僅使用維基百科上之路徑圖。
原圖位置
  討論帖圖片
94P.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-15.5S.133.2E
(jwpk9899於17:24幫忙補上傳)

以上資料來自 : JTWC、BOM、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2014-2-2 09:45

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-2-2 09:52 編輯

BoM編號08U(我有看錯嘛?)
認為後期會移入卡奔塔利亞灣
強度上看澳式C1(40KT)
之後又會回馬槍繞回來@@

t02436 · 2014-2-2 13:58

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3S 136.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 155 NM WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CENTRE
ISLAND, ABOUT 45 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION,
INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SLP
NEAR 999 MB. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW POSITIONED NEAR 25S 132E AND IS UNDER MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE LLCC WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF CARPENTARIA IN
ONE TO TWO DAYS AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY, THERFORE, THERE IS
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

甜心 · 2014-2-2 17:55

這隻可能會生成小型旋風喔，雖然資料上顯示它會於幾日後再度侵襲澳洲。

t02436 · 2014-2-3 01:16

BoM即時報認為已經出海
12Z正報上看45KT
但15Z路徑南調
強度應該會略為下修
估計12小時後就會命名

t02436 · 2014-2-3 08:22

升評Medium

只是感覺要發展越來越難

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S
136.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 139.7E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) IN CONJUNCTION WITH RADAR IMAGERY
FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER LAND BUT IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. INCREASING ORGANIZATION IN THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE OCEAN
HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC CREATING A LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (1O TO 15 KNOTS), ENHANCING
THE CONVECTIVE DEEPENING OBSERVED IN EIR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

krichard2011 · 2014-2-3 11:40

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-2-3 11:42 編輯

這裡結構看似不如95S 怎麼反而先發TCFA呢 = =老J預測未來近似滯留

REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S
139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. MSI SHOWS WEAKER BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND ALSO CONFIRMS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC CREATING A LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (1O TO 15 KNOTS),
ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.