t02436

00Z老J升格11P
只是才分析1.0而已-.-

至於BoM最新一報表示現在20Kt
近岸登陸前才會達到命名標準

新細明體

老J第一報上望50KT

RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE STRONG GRADIENT FLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO FULLY WRAP AROUND THE LLCC BRINGING 30-35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER REPLACING THE PREVIOUSLY WEAKER CORE WINDS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 281354Z OSCAT PASS AS WELL AS OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY WILLIS ISLAND.

PGTW和KNES都只分析出T1.0
但卻因為風場+實測支持而升格
看來JTWC已經被JMA上身了 = =

krichard2011

BOM已經編號 07U
不過後期相當看衰
只上看澳式Cat.1 35 kt (相當於熱帶風暴下限) = =

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0645 UTC 29/01/2014
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 150.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [198 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  29/1200: 16.8S 150.0E:     040 [080]:  025  [045]:  992
+12:  29/1800: 17.2S 149.4E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]:  991
+18:  30/0000: 17.5S 149.0E:     065 [125]:  030  [055]:  991
+24:  30/0600: 17.9S 148.4E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]:  990
+36:  30/1800: 18.9S 147.5E:     100 [185]:  035  [065]:  989
+48:  31/0600: 20.0S 145.6E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  996
+60:  31/1800: 20.5S 143.6E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]:  996
+72:  01/0600: 20.9S 142.2E:     155 [290]:  025  [045]:  997
+96:  02/0600: 21.8S 139.7E:     200 [370]:  020  [035]: 1001
+120: 03/0600: 21.3S 136.0E:     290 [535]:  020  [035]: 1001

jwpk9899

老J已經升到了45kt囉
但是BOM還是繼續給他L~
按照BoM的預報  下一報有可能命名
不過很快就會登陸了PS:對流感覺比較集中了

SHYUDOL

BoM最新一報升格一級熱帶氣旋
命名Dylan

新細明體

2344Z的ASCAT風場掃描
風力很不錯


目前的實測資料
最高風速為51KT
不過該測站海拔稍高

krichard2011

即將登陸時刻 對流猛烈爆發
短短幾個小時就從澳式Cat.1升級到 Cat.2
增強的速度還挺快的
目前即將當陸澳洲東北岸...


IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0738 UTC 30/01/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Dylan
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 18.1S
Longitude: 148.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 45 nm [85 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm
FORECAST DATA

jwpk9899

熱帶氣旋Dylan大約在清晨這段時間在昆士蘭一帶登陸
登陸後整個對流大幅度的減弱 整個快散架了
而Bom也將它降為L囉    JTWC則發出了FW