11P.Dylan 登陸澳洲昆士蘭強度迅速減弱＊

... · 2014-1-22 17:28

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-26 23:55 編輯

  二級熱帶氣旋
編號：07 U (11 P)
名稱：Dylan

  基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2014 年 01 月 22 日 17  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 01 月 30 日 11 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 02 月 01 日 14 時
　登陸地點　　：澳大利亞昆士蘭州

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC) ： 55 kts  ( TS    )
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)： 55 kts ( Cat.2   )
海平面最低氣壓： 975 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
99P.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-12.0S-171.0E

以上資料來自 : JTWC、BOM、颱風論壇整理製作

甜心 · 2014-1-23 20:12

這隻結構看起來很糟它目前還只是個完全看不出中心跟螺旋性的微弱低壓吧:o

t02436 · 2014-1-24 14:24

維持low評...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.7S 163.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 232227Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

krichard2011 · 2014-1-27 09:20

現在的結構跟前幾天來比已經獲得不錯的改善
雖然底層孩仍有待加強
不過至少螺旋的樣子已稍微看得出來

krichard2011 · 2014-1-27 15:31

JTWC 升評 Medium
GFS看似頗支持發展的
附近的環境除了風切較強之外
其他皆還算可以接受
其高層反氣旋也似乎有建立起來的樣子
預測未來將轉向西撞向東北澳

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6S
157.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 154.5E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING AND BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERIES OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
270324Z COLOR COMPOSITE AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS
STARTING TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE DESPITE THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVERALL
BROAD AND ELONGATED WHILE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE LLCC
LIES UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS WHILE LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS PERSISTED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 48 TO
72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.