1401 玲玲減弱為熱帶性氣壓

jick810530 · 2014-1-15 16:02

老j再次發個LOW了
接下來是以後的觀察點

Meow · 2014-1-15 22:43

日本、美國再次定位嚴重分歧，前者定在南側對流、後者定在北側對流。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.

20140115.1401.mtsat2.x.ir1km.91WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-136N-1276E.100pc.jpg

開梅 · 2014-1-16 00:03

目前各國對此系統的定位分歧，前天看已到菲國南部陸地，但昨天卻定位在126度的地方，感覺好像東移

t02436 · 2014-1-17 06:48

補個資料
昨天12Z發布TCFA

krichard2011 · 2014-1-17 12:23

PAGASA 升格TD命名Agaton
這個熱帶低壓已經造成34人死亡...
不過目前型態看似不是很好
有明顯裸奔的情形...

HKWCFC網主 · 2014-1-17 13:10

本帖最後由 HKWCFC網主於 2014-1-17 18:40 編輯

1.南北對流今早合併
2.北面對流漸漸旺盛
3.可見光圖見弱環流
4.北面對流發展較佳
5.北面對流發展較佳
6.西面部份環流登陸
6.環流不小有螺旋性
7.風場圖示風力仍弱
8.垂直風切變不樂觀
9.高空輻散卻頗良好
10.渦度還有熱低水平
11.低層環流廣闊旺盛
12.台灣方面已升TD
13.日本已升TD(w)
14.香港方面未有行動

同時，一個低壓區為菲律賓以東海域帶來不穩定天氣。

(取自香港天文台本港地區天氣預報12:45)

Alexchow · 2014-1-17 17:51

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
127.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED AND PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 170048Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SHEARED STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC REMAINS LOOSELY
DEFINED DESPITE THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVERALL BROAD AND THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BE FRAGMENTED. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STRONG
(25 TO 30 KNOTS), WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE HIGHLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 161500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

仍然在high