簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-1-9 14:45
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終於評級Low
玲玲有機會誕生~~~
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N
143.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 141.0E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 082250Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 082327Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY FLOW DISPLACED OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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