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krichard2011|2014-1-6 07:44
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本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-1-6 07:45 編輯
FMS 正式命名 IAN
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 05/2300 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN 07F CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 175.7W
AT 052100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. OUTFLOW GOOD
THE THE EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED
SOUTHEASTWARDS BY A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65
WRAP YIELDING DT OF 3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT THEN RECURVING
WESTWARDS WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060900 UTC 18.9S 175.6W MOV SSE AT 01 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 062100 UTC 18.9S 175.8W MOV SSW AT 01 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070900 UTC 18.6S 176.3W MOV W AT 01 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 072100 UTC 18.4S 176.9W MOV WNW AT 01 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 060200 UTC.
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