07P.Ian 上調巔峰強度漸入高緯逐漸減弱中＊

t02436 · 2014-1-3 23:12

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-26 23:46 編輯

  五級熱帶氣旋
編號：07 F (07 P)
名稱：Ian

  基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2013 年 01 月 03 日 23  時
　命名日期　　：2013 年 01 月 06 日 07 時
　消散日期　　：2013 年 01 月 15 日 02 時
　登陸地點　　：東加王國哈派群島

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
斐濟氣象局(FMS)：110  kts (  CAT 5  )
美國海軍 (JTWC)：130  kts (  CAT 4  )
海平面最低氣壓  ：930 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
90P.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-15.3S-175.7W

以上資料來自 : JTWC、FMS、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2014-1-3 23:21

FMS早上對其編號07F~評級LOW~

Potential for New Tropical Cyclone formation till 1200UTC Monday 06th January, 2014:
Tropical Disturbance TD07F was located near 14.4S 175.8W at 3pm today. The system is expected to gradually move southwestwards.
Saturday 4th January
The Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation in the shaded region is LOW.

martin191919 · 2014-1-4 19:17

斐濟升熱帶低壓

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 04/0849 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.4S 176.9W
AT 040600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSITANT PAST 24
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 850HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TEH
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

t02436 · 2014-1-4 20:23

t02436 · 2014-1-5 07:54

t02436 · 2014-1-5 14:41

早上發TCFA了~~
看能不能成為南太新風季首旋

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S
175.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 176.0W, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 042135Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
042040Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.