t02436

重新評Low~~

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.2N 79.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 42 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF TC 01B HAS
MOVED BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF PALK STRAIT. THE SYSTEM APPEARS
COMPACT WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM PERSISTS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THOUGH DYNAMIC
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE DEVELOPMENT PAST THE 35-KNOT WARNING
THRESHOLD, CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE A 25 KNOT
CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.