【孟灣】01B 風切稍減中心裸露 2014北印第一命名旋?*

jwpk9899 · 2014-1-2 05:30

  低壓/熱帶風暴
   編號：BOB 01 (01B)
   名稱：無

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 01 月 02 日 01 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 01 月 10 日 02 時　
登陸地點　　：印度斯里蘭卡

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)：    40 kts  (    TS    )
   印度氣象局(IMD)：    25 kts  (Depression)
海平面最低氣壓  ： 1006/993 百帕(IMD/JTWC)
  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
90B.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-5.0N-88.0E

以上資料來自 : JTWC、IMD、颱風論壇整理製作

jwpk9899 · 2014-1-3 05:24

JTWC評價為LOW

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.1N 86.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)WITH IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION FORMING OVER
THE DISTURBANCE. ALSO A 1524Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LLCC
WITH 20KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436 · 2014-1-4 07:42

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 86.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031558Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

krichard2011 · 2014-1-4 11:06

結構持續轉佳...
這一報升TCFA

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3N 84.6E TO 9.7N 80.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
040230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
84.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
84.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 84.0E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 040001Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 031810Z OSCAT PASS
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.