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06S.Bejisa 漸入高緯逐漸減弱中*

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-28 23:13 | 顯示全部樓層
ZCZC 239
WTIO30 FMEE 281251
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/4/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  4
2.A POSITION 2013/12/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5 S / 52.0 E
(NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/29 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/12/29 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/12/30 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/12/30 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/12/31 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/12/31 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/01 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2014/01/02 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5+
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED (CF ASCAT PASS AT 0611Z AND GCOM-W1
AT 0832Z) AND SMALL. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE HIGH (1013 HPA). SO
THE MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD EQUATORWARDS BUT RATHER LIMITED TO THE
SOUTH WITH A WEAK TRADEWINDS DUE TO THE FAR INFLUENCE OF THE REMNANT
OF AMARA. IN THE UPPER LEVEL, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT.
FIRSTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED TO
THE NORTH-EAST. MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE
EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON A
FASTER SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY-TRACK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WEAKENS AND ALLOW A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IT REMAINS SOME STRONG FLUCTUATIONS ON
THE TIMING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MEAN OF ALL LATEST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCES AND THE MEAN OF THE LATEST 2 RUN OF ECMWF.
ON TEH FORECAST TRACK, TEH SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TOMORROW AND SHOULD BENEFIT FROM GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (A
OUTFLOW CHANNELS, ONE TO THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE SOUTH) AND LOW
SHEAR CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE
SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.=
NNNN
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-29 10:08 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC:REMAINS MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 51.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 51.4E, APPROXIMATELY 224 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND AN ESTABLISHED BANDING FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 281232Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH IMPROVING FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES ONE TO
THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE SOUTH IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE WESTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE IMPROVED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-29 10:19 | 顯示全部樓層
ZCZC 774
WTIO30 FMEE 290036 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/4/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  4
2.A POSITION 2013/12/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 52.2 E
(TEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/29 12 UTC: 10.4 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/12/30 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/12/30 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/12/31 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/12/31 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2014/01/01 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/02 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2014/01/03 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTE
R INTO A CDO PATTERN DURING THE LAST HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE HIGH (1013 HPA). SO THE MS
LP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD EQUATORWARDS BUT RATHER LIMITED TO THE SOUTH WITH A WEAK TRADEWINDS D
UE TO THE FAR INFLUENCE OF THE DISSIPATING REMNANT OF AMARA. IN THE UPPER LEVEL, THE SYSTEM IS LOC
ATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT WEAKENIN
G.
FIRSTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MONSOON FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH-EAST, AND A FIELD QUITE WEAK IN THE SOUTH.
MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD
STEER THE SYSTEM ON A FASTER SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY-TRACK.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WEAKENS AND ALLOW A MORE SOUTHEAST
WARDS TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IT REMAINS SO
ME STRONG FLUCTUATIONS ON THE TIMING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MEAN OF ALL LATEST AVAI
LABLE GUIDANCES AND THE MEAN OF THE LATEST 2 RUNS OF ECMWF.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOMORROW AND SHOULD BENE
FIT FROM GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (2 OUTFLOW CHANNELS, ONE TO THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE SOUTH) A
ND LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVE
L RIDGE.
NNNN



明天45KT
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2013-12-29 14:27 | 顯示全部樓層
TCFA~~

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
51.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 52.2E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND A WELL ESTABLISHED BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 282329Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATED A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL NUMBER OF
30 KNOT WIND BARBS. AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), WHICH INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE REMAINED STRONG.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

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真的發展很快..有嚇到XD  發表於 2013-12-29 16:37
06S升格比我預期中也快了很多  發表於 2013-12-29 16:09
相信最快今天稍後或明日就要升格  發表於 2013-12-29 15:03
早上還"remains medium",下午就TCFA  發表於 2013-12-29 15:01

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-29 16:09 | 顯示全部樓層
升格06S

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-29 16:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC #01  上望C.1

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-29 18:26 | 顯示全部樓層
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20132014
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1003 HPA
POSITION LE 29 DECEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 10.3 SUD / 52.2 EST
(DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES : 1225 KM AU SECTEUR: NORD-NORD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 6 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 30/12 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 12.0 S / 52.7 E

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 31/12 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 13.7 S / 52.5 E

CYCLONE TROPICAL,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 01/01 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 17.0 S / 53.2 E

CYCLONE TROPICAL,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 02/01 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 19.2 S / 54.7 E

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 03/01 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 21.4 S / 56.3 E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

-------------------------------------------------


CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN VERS 17H LOCALES.

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2013-12-30 05:19 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR正式命名為Bejisa
預估撲向留尼旺及模里西斯一帶...

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