簽到天數: 815 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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martin191919|2013-12-28 19:58
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The transequatorial monsoon inflow is established from the African coastlines to 60E. Over the
indian Ocean and to the East of 60E, the Monsoon Trough undulates along a 09S/60E - 07S/70S -
06S/80E - 09S/90E axis. The associated convective activity, scattered and disorganised, is mainly
located north of the trough.
West of 60E, the convective activity has strengthened and gained in organisation during the last 24
hours around a newly formed Tropical Disturbance. Warnings and advisories will start for this
system at 12Z.
Tropical Disturbance to the North-East of Madagascar :
At 09Z, the system is centred near 9.3S/52.1E, or about 120 km to the East of Faquhar islands or
about 450 km to the North-East of Diego-Suarez. The max 10-min winds are estimated at 15/25 kt
and could locally reach 30 kt in the north-western quadrant (cf. ascat pass at 0611Z). After a
westwards motion last night and this morning, a slow southwards drift has seemed to occur since a
few hours. MSLP is estimated at 1008 hPa (high environmental pressure with almost 1013 hPa,
corrected from the barometric tide, reported et Agalega and Mahé at 09Z). Within a rather
favourable environment, this small size system should continue its intensification during the next
few days.
The disturbed weather associated with this system is impacting the whole Seychelles archipelago.
The Faquhar islands are located over the main deep convection since this morning and the main
islands, located at about 600 km to the North-East of the system, are within a confluence area
between the monsoon flow and the cyclonic circulation. Mahé reported at 06Z 164 mm of rain
during the last 24 hours. This pattern, associated with high heavy rainfall potential, should continue
for the next 24 to 36 hours over the whole Seychelles archipelago.
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