03S.Amara 打轉後西行趨向馬達加斯加＊

jwpk9899 · 2013-12-17 05:27

本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2013-12-17 21:07 編輯

他悄悄的命名了Amara
而老j也默默地升格03S了
上望熱帶氣旋(80kt) 而老J目前上望60kt

WTIO30 FMEE 161902
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20132014
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (AMARA)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 72.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 130 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 70 NW: 130
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/17 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2013/12/17 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/12/18 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/12/18 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/12/19 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2013/12/19 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/20 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 61.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2013/12/21 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+

t02436 · 2013-12-17 06:47

krichard2011 · 2013-12-17 18:05

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-12-17 18:06 編輯

底層風眼正在建立中
從可見光來看風眼算是還滿清楚的
不過前方環境偏乾
以現在的情況環境不太適合他的發展
強度暫時不是很看好

krichard2011 · 2013-12-17 19:15

從最新的底層掃描來看
強對流已經繞完一圈了
就看現在的小巧結構能不能順利避開乾空氣的侵擾
原則上只要緯度不要下子衝太高
應該還是有機會發展

krichard2011 · 2013-12-18 15:33

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-12-18 15:33 編輯

MFR已經升到65kt了
未來上看90kt
JTWC也上調強度從60kts一下子升到80kts
可見風眼轉清晰後強度快速增強
從雲圖來看高層眼正在清空中
WTIO30 FMEE 180626
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/2/20132014
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (AMARA)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 70.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 200 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/18 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/12/19 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/12/19 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/12/20 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/12/20 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2013/12/21 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/22 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2013/12/23 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5