krichard2011

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
   編號：02R(03S)
   名稱：Amara

  基本資料     
    擾動編號日期：2013  年 12 月 12 日 02 時
　命名日期　　：2013  年 12 月 17 日 02 時
　消散日期　　：2013  年 12 月 00 日 00 時
　登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國海軍 (JTWC)　 ： 130  kts ( CAT 4)
    留尼旺氣象部(MFR)： 110  kts (   ITC  )
    海平面最低氣壓　   ： 933 百帕
  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
93S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-7.5S-79.0E

以上資料來自 : JTWC、MFR、颱風論壇整理製作

krichard2011

目前93S已經初具螺旋性
水器供應也不錯 為附近的風切稍強
暫時阻礙發展 附近環境還有待改善
不過以目前來講 雲型結構算是已經很不錯了

t02436

評級LOW~~~
這片前途一片光明啊

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S 81.2E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 131017Z NOAA-18 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES, PRIMARILY, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO THE ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 130440Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 130636Z OCEANSAT IMAGE REVEAL AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHARP MONSOON TROUGH WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

快速發展升評 Medium~

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 81.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 81.6E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND ALSO A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. A 140418Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT. A 140334Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT CORE WINDS AND 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE PERIPHERY. THIS ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES SOME HIGHER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BUT THESE APPEAR ERRONEOUS DUE TO THE HEAVY DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

krichard2011

LLCC目前還是有裸露的情形有待改善
不過稍早風速已經升到30kts了
話說應該已經到了發布TCFA的標準了吧...
有可能是因為結構不佳

jwpk9899

雲圖上整體氣旋式環流很明顯
但是對流分布的比較不對稱 偏南邊

SHYUDOL

MFR編號02R
強度的預估...不是很強 只上望40kt
ZCZC 101
WTIO30 FMEE 150002
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/2/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  2
2.A POSITION 2013/12/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 81.4 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 700 SE:  SW: 370 NW: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/15 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2013/12/16 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/12/16 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2013/12/17 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2013/12/17 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2013/12/18 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 70.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2013/12/19 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2013/12/20 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

krichard2011

強對流已經開始往中心聚集了
底層正在建立中
JTWC也發布TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S
81.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 76.5E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION. SSMIS PASSES FROM 151159Z AND 151302Z
INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
SUSPECTED LLCC. POSITIONING HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE AS MULTIPLE MESO-VORTICES HAVE POPPED OUT ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND UNRAVELED. CURRENT POSITION PHILOSOPHY IS TO STAY WITH
THE CENTER OF MASS WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN AT 151200Z AND ARE CALLING FOR A 25 KNOT
DISTURBANCE BUT THE MOST RECENT SCAT PASS (OSCAT FROM 150636Z)
INDICATES A 30 KNOT LLCC WHICH HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC BUT HAS BEEN DECREASING DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC TO LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW HAS
BEGUN TO PICK UP IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION WITH A CONNECTION INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS MARGINAL. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPING THE DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED SYMMETRY OF THE LLCC AND
IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.