martin191919

martin191919

真的TCFA
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 136.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, YET CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 081100Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A 081159Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

ben811018

是這樣的....TCFA了= ="

草蜢仔

中 國 東 南 部 的 高 壓 脊 會 在 未 來 一 兩 天 為 該 區 帶 來 普 遍 晴 朗 及 酷 熱 的 天 氣 。 預 料 一 個 低 壓 區 會 在 下 週 中 期 為 華 南 沿 岸 及 南 海 北 部 帶 來 不 穩 定 天 氣 。

ivanhui

如無意外95w應該會彎成96W的食糧，海南貨又小一件了，不過
擔心會否因而影響96w路徑？

丹尼兒

提供下小j晚間最新全球數值模式速報

相當驚悚的一報

108小時接近東南部海面 120~192後颱風中心停滯台灣東部沿岸陸地 侵襲時間將長達72小時以上 按這預測 台灣雨水降到爆

目前各大數值分岐極大 值得注意下

martin191919

11W.ELEVEN

martin191919

JMA : GW