FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 128.4E TO 16.4N 124.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
271300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
127.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 129.2E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A VERY BROAD SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED FEEDER BANDS THAT HAS
FURTHER CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
271144Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT CLEARLY OUTLINES THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AS THE STORM MOTION
BECAME IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED WESTWARD BY A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
CYCLOGENESIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED BANDING AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
