簽到天數: 1717 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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howard2639|2011-9-30 16:46
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本帖最後由 howard2639 於 2011-10-1 15:46 編輯
WTPN33 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 127.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.5N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.5N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.6N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.9N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.6N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.4N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 126.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS AND NOW HAS A SMALL 5 NM EYE. THE 300518Z AMSR-E 36V IMAGE
SHOWS A SMALL BREAK IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE EAST QUADRANT (PERHAPS
DUE TO WEAK, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING EXTENDING OUT ABOUT 120 NM FROM THE CENTER, SO TY 22W
REMAINS A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM. OVERALL, OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE SMALL
EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90
TO 102 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 80-90 KNOTS AND
MAY BE A LITTLE LOW BECAUSE OF THE VERY SMALL EYE. TY 22W IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, SUPPORTING A TRACK OVER NORTHERN
LUZON, BUT DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES INTO EASTERN CHINA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A
SHORT-LIVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA THEN TY 22W SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AS THE STR BUILDS BACK IN. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON
AND WEAKENING, TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP SLIGHTLY AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 300600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z
AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (NESAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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