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c789654|2011-9-29 06:05
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WTPN33 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 135.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 135.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.4N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.4N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.5N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.5N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.5N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.4N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.5N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 134.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT AND DEEPENING SYSTEM. A 281519Z TRMM IMAGE REVEALED A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE AS WELL AS CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL
QUADRANTS. A 281500Z OCEANSAT IMAGE AIDED IN POSITION CONFIDENCE AS
WELL AS CONFIRMED THAT THE AREA OF GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS
SURROUNDING THE STORM IS RELATIVELY SMALL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVELS OF TS 22W ARE LINKING WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND GIVING A BOOST TO OUTFLOW, A KEY REASON FOR TS
22W DOUBLING IN INTENSITY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TROUGH IS
PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EASTWARD, HOWEVER, SO THE ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. TS 22W IS A WEST RUNNER, STEERING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE BETWEEN TAIWAN AND OKINAWA IS BUILDING EASTWARD AND WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, DRIVING
THE STORM WESTWARD AT A MODERATELY FASTER CLIP. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
EMPHATIC REGARDING A WESTERLY TRACK BUT THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN
TRACK SPEEDS AS WELL AS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE MOST POLEWARD
TRACKERS (NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR), AND THE MORE EQUATORWARD GROUP
(ECMWF, GFS, AND JGSM). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS IN THE BELIEF THAT CONSENSUS IS PULLED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD
BY NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ANALYSES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY UNDER
VERY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BOTH SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE BUT CONSIDERS LAND
INTERACTION WITH LUZON BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (NESAT)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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