A very weak circulation lies in the northern Arafura Sea which could develop into tropical low, 08U, during Friday. During the weekend the system is expected to move towards the south or southwest. If the system tracks towards the south development will be inhibited by land. However, if 08U moves to the southwest then it will likely intensify over the Timor Sea or adjacent waters. There is a Low tropical cyclone risk for Saturday and a Moderate risk for Sunday.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday: Low
Sunday:Moderate
ABIO10 PGTW 240030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/240030Z-241800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4S
130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD FLARING
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS WINDS OF 20KT IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, HOWEVER THEY ARE SPLIT ON THE TRACK. CMC,
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK INTO
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WHILE NAVGEM AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER AUSTRALIA JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1). AS A
LOW. //
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At 1400 CST Tropical low 08U was located approximately 300km north northwest of Darwin. 08U is expected to move south towards the western Top End and intensify during the weekend. A Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system, please refer to www.bom.gov.au/cyclone for further information.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday:Moderate
Sunday:High
Monday:High
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.4S 130.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 101
NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 241235Z ASCAT PSS
AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL INTENSIFY AND
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS; HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT ON
THE TRACK. CMC, GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES HAVE A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC), WHILE NAVGEM AND ECMWF
HAVE A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER AUSTRALIA JUST SOUTH OF
THE GOC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTXS21 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S 130.5E TO 13.0S 131.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 130.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S 130.3 E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY
62 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE RAIN
BANDS FEEDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 241323Z ASCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20-25KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW
TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-32C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE INTENSIFICATION OF 97S AND CONCUR THAT THE INVEST WILL TRACK
OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252100Z.
//
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