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老農民版夜神月|2021-12-4 10:46
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JTWC發布Final Warning
WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (NYATOH) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (NYATOH) WARNING NR 019
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 27W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 28.2N 146.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 146.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.9N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.8N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.2N 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
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REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 147.1E.
04DEC21. TROPICAL STORM 27W (NYATOH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350
NM NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 25
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPON EXTENSIVE SATELLITE ANALYSIS
THERE IS A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TS 27W. THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL VICE DISSIPATING OVER WATER AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. TS 27W IS MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAROCLINIC LOW THAT IS PASSING SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA.
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO LOCATED DIRECTLY UNDER THE JET AND THE VORTEX HAS
BECOME CORRODED. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 032117Z SSMIS 91GHZ REVEAL THE SYSTEM IS BARELY APPARENT AND
SHOWING SIGNS OF ITS OWN FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE A HARD TIME AGREEING WITH A VORTEX CENTER, LIKELY DUE
TO THE SYSTEM UNDERGOING A RAPID TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 28 FEET.
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