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2121 妮亞圖 風眼開啟 顛峰達C4 北上轉化

簽到天數: 1615 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2021-11-26 15:11 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度颱風  
編號:2121 ( 27 W )
名稱: 妮亞圖 ( Nyatoh )
2121.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        :2021 11 26 15
JMA升格熱低日期:2021 11 29 08
CWB編號日期    :2021 11 29 20
命名日期          :2021 11 30 08
停編日期         :2021 12 04 14
登陸地點      :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB):45 m/s ( 15 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) :50 m/s ( 100 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):130 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓940 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  : 250 公里
十級風半徑  : 80  公里

  過去路徑圖  
2121_JTWC.jpg

  擾動編號資料  
93W.INVEST.15kts.998mb.8.3N.156.4E

20211126.0640.himawari-8.ir.93W.INVEST.15kts.998mb.8.3N.156.4E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2022擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-26 17:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3N
156.4E, APPROXIMATELY 752 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
PASS DEPICT A TROPICAL WAVE WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (30-35KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
NVGM, CMC, GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL
WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE IN THE VICINITY OF
GUAM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair (50).jpg 20211126.0840.himawari-8.ir.93W.INVEST.15kts.998mb.8.3N.156.4E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-26 17:14 | 顯示全部樓層
數值看好發展
wpac (37).png eastasia (28).png 93W_gefs_latest.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_29.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-28 06:59 | 顯示全部樓層
EC,GFS仍就給予相當顯著的支持
wpac (8).png eastasia.png
93W_tracks_latest.png 93W_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-28 10:33 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級提升至Medium
ABPW10 PGTW 280130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/280130Z-280600ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 152.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 232
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 272101Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISJOINTED PATCH OF
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TROPICAL WAVE. A PARTIAL
2341Z ACSAT-B IMAGE REVEALS 15-20KT WINDS NORTH OF THE WAVE CUSP
WHILE ASLO REVEALING SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AS OF YET THERE IS NO CLEAR LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (05-
15KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. WHILE THERE IS NO CLOSED ISOBAR OR CLOSED LLC AT THIS TIME,
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN CUSP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION IN
THE 24 HOURS FOLLOWING. 93W WILL GENERALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DEVELOP LIKE A HOUSE ON FIRE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

abpwsair (51).jpg 20211128.0150.himawari-8.vis.93W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.9.9N.146.7E.100pc.jpg 20211127.2341.mtb.ASCAT.wind.93W.INVEST.20kts-1006mb.99N.1467E.25km.noqc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-28 15:14 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 146.0E TO 12.7N 139.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280530Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 145.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.9N 146.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 173
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER, AND DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE LLC. A 280336Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS INCIPIENT LOW-LEVEL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
WITH EXTENSIVE FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM GUAM INDICATE VIGOROUS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 25-30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE NEXT ONE TO
TWO DAYS, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONSOLIDATION
INTO A DISCRETE LLC WITH A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. HOWEVER, VIGOROUS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN OVER GUAM DURING THIS PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290600Z.//
NNNN
wp9321 (1).gif 93W_280600sair.jpg abpwsair (52).jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-11-29 11:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA升格TD
20211129024131_0_Z__C_010000_20211129000000_MET_CHT_JCIasas_JCP600x512_JRcolor_T.png 20211129.0300.himawari-8.vis.93W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.11.7N.142.6E.100pc.jpg wpac (9).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-11-29 21:18 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-11-29 21:23 編輯

JMA發布GW,初報上望50KT
熱帯低気圧 a
2021年11月29日22時15分発表

29日21時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯11度50分(11.8度)
東経141度5分(141.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

30日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯13度5分(13.1度)
東経136度50分(136.8度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        150km(80NM)

01日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯14度50分(14.8度)
東経134度50分(134.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        240km(130NM)

02日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯17度20分(17.3度)
東経135度30分(135.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        992hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径        430km(230NM)

03日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        日本の南
予報円の中心        北緯20度50分(20.8度)
東経138度30分(138.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        990hPa
中心付近の最大風速        25m/s(50kt)
最大瞬間風速        35m/s(70kt)
予報円の半径        650km(360NM)

04日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
予報円の中心        北緯22度55分(22.9度)
東経141度55分(141.9度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        996hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        950km(500NM)

212011ypbi8tp8s888prww.jpg 93W_BAND13.gif 93W_BD.gif 93W_RBTOP.gif
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