簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2021-8-31 05:49
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降格TD,逐漸深入美國陸地,NHC將轉交由WPC發報
000
WTNT44 KNHC 302037
TCDAT4
Tropical Depression Ida Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021
Ida has continued to weaken while moving farther inland over
west-central Mississippi this afternoon. Recent observations
indicate that the stronger winds seen this morning along the
northern Gulf coast have now dropped below tropical storm strength,
and Ida has become a tropical depression. Additional weakening
should occur while Ida moves over northeastern Mississippi and the
Tennessee Valley during the next 12 to 24 hours. Ida is forecast to
become an extratropical cyclone over the eastern United States by
late Wednesday, and it is likely to be absorbed within a frontal
boundary over the western Atlantic by the end of the forecast
period.
Ida has turned northeastward and is now moving 020/8 kt. A
mid- to upper-level trough approaching Ida from the west should
cause the cyclone to move faster toward the northeast over the next
couple of days. The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a
bit better agreement regarding the forward speed of the Ida as it
moves across the eastern U.S., and the NHC track forecast is again
near the middle of the guidance envelope.
Although Ida's winds have decreased, the threat of heavy rainfall
and flooding will continue to spread inland over portions of the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, the Central and Southern Appalachians
and the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Ida. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
Key Messages:
1. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through
Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi,
and western Alabama, resulting in considerable flash and urban
flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Rivers in the
Lower Mississippi Valley will remain elevated into next week. As Ida
moves inland, additional considerable flooding impacts are likely
across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and
particularly in the Central and Southern Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.
2. In areas that experienced damage and power loss, individuals
should use extreme caution during the recovery phase. Post-storm
fatalities and injuries often result from heart attacks, heat
exhaustion, accidents related to clean up and recovery, and carbon
monoxide poisoning from improper generator use.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 32.6N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0600Z 33.6N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1800Z 34.8N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/1800Z 38.0N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1800Z 41.0N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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