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JTWC發布TCFA

WTNT21 PHNC 220100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS OF HURRICANE 07L)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.9N 98.9W TO 20.0N 109.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7N 99.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF HURRICANE 07L) HAS
PERSISTED NEAR 19.7N 99.5W, APPROXIMATELY 27 NM SOUTH OF MEXICO
CITY. ANIMATED MULTRISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRACKING OVER MEXICO
WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OVER THE
WESTERN SHORELINE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE 07L WILL BRIEFLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230100Z.//
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