老農民版夜神月

即將進入中太

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 052032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021

Jimena's cloud pattern, which has changed little since earlier this
morning, consists of a fragmented curved band in the northwestern
semicircle and a patch of deep convection just to the southeast of
the surface center.  The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged (T2.5) and the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt.

Jimena has about another 12 hours or so before it traverses
decreasing (sub-25C) sea-surface temperatures, and the surrounding
environment becomes less favorable due to an intruding dry and
stable air mass.  Increasing west-northwesterly shear is also
expected to negatively affect the cyclone beyond the 36 hour period.
The official intensity forecast, which is similar to the IVCN
intensity consensus model, indicates Jimena becoming a depression
in about 24 hours and further weakening to a remnant low on
Saturday, and opening up into a trough of low pressure on Sunday.

The initial motions is estimated to be northwest, or 310/7 kt.  A
mid-tropospheric ridge situated to the northeast of the cyclone
should keep Jimena moving toward the northwest through the 48
period.  Afterward, a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast as
the vertically shallow system is steered by the low-level
environmental flow.  The NHC track forecast, once again, follows
the TVCN consensus aid closely, and is similar to the previous
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 16.4N 137.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

老農民版夜神月

進入中太,將交由CPHC發報,不過照預報來看大概會跟06E.Felicia一樣一兩報就會停編

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 062032
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Jimena Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021

During the last 6 hours, deep convection associated with Jimena has
waned.  A recently arriving 1756 UTC ASCAT pass revealed peak
believable winds of around 30 kt.  The latest Dvorak T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have also decreased, and these
data support lowering the initial intensity to 30 kt.  Jimena is
currently moving over SSTs near 24C and into a more stable air mass.
In addition, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path
during the next 12 hours.  These factors should cause continued
weakening, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
by late tonight or early Saturday.

The initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt.  The west-northwestward
motion is forecast to continue for another day or so, followed by a
gradual bend to the west as Jimena weakens and is steered by the
low-level trade wind flow.  The new track forecast is slightly to
the south of the previous NHC advisory, and is in best agreement
with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

Jimena is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be
the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Jimena
can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2
and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 17.6N 140.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

老農民版夜神月

結果果真又是一進轄區馬上判定為LO

CPHC這也是沒準了,真夠懶的

EP, 09, 2021080700, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1405W, 30, 1009, LO,