老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：09 E
名稱：Jimena

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2021 年 07 月 27 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 08 月 05 日 17 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 08 月 08 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：35  kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1005 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
99E.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.14N.120W

NHC：20%

1. A small but well-defined area of low pressure located more than 700
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce a small area of shower and
thunderstorm activity near its center.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible over the next several days as it moves
westward at around 10 mph.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至30%/50%

1. A low-pressure system located over 850 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to the southeast of
its center. This activity has recently become a little more
concentrated closer to the center, and environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for additional development. A tropical
depression could form later this week as the system moves generally
westward at around 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至Medium,40%/70%

1. Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce some showers and thunderstorms,
mainly to the east and southeast of its center.  Environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more favorable for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system moves
generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望持續提升至60%,JTWC可能稍晚便會發布TCFA

1. Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with an
area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming
better organized.  Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more favorable for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this
weekend while the system moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 290830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 119.9W TO 13.4N 126.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 121.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER (LLC) LOCATED TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IMPARTING 15-20
KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR, AND A DRY AIR MASS LOCATED WEST OF AND
OVER THE LLC. HOWEVER, THE CURRENTLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
AND NEARBY DEEP CONVECTION INDICATE THAT FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300830Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至80%,High

2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Upper-level winds
are expected to become more conducive for development during the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form
over the weekend while the system moves generally westward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC升格TD,編號09E,首報上望50節不封頂

960
WTPZ44 KNHC 302037
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021

An area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring during the
past several days over the eastern Pacific, has developed a
well-defined surface center, as indicated in a recent
scatterometer overpass, and has acquired sufficient organized
convection to be classified as a 25-kt tropical depression.  The
northwesterly shear which has been curtailing genesis over the past
couple of days has diminished just enough to allow the system to
become better organized, particularly, in the east and south
portions of the cyclone.

The depression is embedded in weak easterly steering currents
created by a deep-layer cut-off low and associated trough situated
along 125W.  As a result, the depression is temporarily drifting
west-southwestward, or 255/4 kt.  Large-scale models indicate that
the cut-off feature will lift northward during the next 24-36 hours
allowing a mid-tropospheric ridge to build in over the eastern
Pacific.  Accordingly, the cyclone should track generally westward
at an increased forward speed beyond mid period.  The official
forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the top forecast
track performers, HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the
multi-model consensus TVCN.

Now that the shear is weakening and the upper tropospheric winds are
predicted to become more favorable, (easterly, and little more
diffluent) steady strengthening is expected while the cyclone
traverses deep, warm oceanic temperatures.  The NHC intensity
forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and
the IVCN intensity aid and is below the Decay-SHIPS
statistical-dynamical guidance beyond the 72-hour period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 12.3N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  31/0600Z 12.0N 126.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  31/1800Z 11.7N 126.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  01/0600Z 11.7N 127.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  01/1800Z 11.8N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  02/0600Z 12.1N 131.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  02/1800Z 12.5N 132.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  03/1800Z 13.2N 135.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 13.9N 138.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

老農民版夜神月

NHC於昨01/09Z判定其已暫成為後熱帶氣旋

WTPZ44 KNHC 010838
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092021
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021

The depression has remained poorly organized for more than 24 hours
and has produced a very limited amount of convection during that
time. As a result of the lack of organized deep convection over the
past day, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical
cyclone, and it has degenerated into a remnant low.  In addition,
the original low-level swirl that was tracked over the past day or
so appears to have been absorbed within the envelope of the broader
low pressure area.  The system's initial intensity is maintained
at 25 kt, but this could be generous.

The depression has been plagued by shear and dry air entrainment,
and those conditions are expected to persist for at least the next
couple of days.  If the system is able to survive past 72 hours,
there is some chance of redevelopment when the shear decreases
later in the period.  However, given the uncertainty surrounding
the potential interaction with Hurricane Hilda located to the
cyclone's northeast, the official forecast calls for the system to
remain a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on
this system unless regeneration occurs.

The cyclone has been nearly stationary overnight, but it is
forecast to begin a slow westward to west-northwestward motion later
today, and that motion should continue for the next few days.
After that time, possible interaction with Hilda increases the track
forecast uncertainty, but since the majority of the dynamical
models keep the low on a west-northwestward heading, so does the
NHC forecast.

Future information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php  

Information on potential regeneration will be available in the
Tropical Weather Outlook as needed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 11.4N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H  01/1800Z 11.8N 128.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  02/0600Z 12.0N 129.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  02/1800Z 12.3N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  03/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  03/1800Z 13.1N 134.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  04/0600Z 13.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  05/0600Z 14.5N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown