2104 小熊於北部灣短暫發展登陸越南

dom · 2021-6-12 10:52

JTWC升格05W，初報上望40節

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 110.0E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
   SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.8N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.5N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.5N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.3N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 109.5E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
29 NM EAST OF SANYA, HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z,
122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

dom · 2021-6-12 15:27

JMA06Z命名小熊

WTPQ20 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 2104 KOGUMA (2104) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  120600UTC 19.4N 108.6E FAIR
MOVE  WNW 11KT
PRES  996HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
30KT  240NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF  130600UTC 20.6N 105.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 08KT
PRES  996HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
48HF  140600UTC 21.6N 103.1E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

dom · 2021-6-12 15:39

CWB升格輕度颱風

現況
2021年06月12日14時

中心位置在北緯 19.0 度，東經 109.2 度
過去移動方向西北西
過去移動時速 25公里
中心氣壓 995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

西北西時速 20 公里
預測 06月13日02時
中心位置在北緯 19.8 度，東經 107.0 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 60 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為

西北西時速 16 公里
預測 06月13日14時
中心位置在北緯 20.3 度，東經 105.2 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 100 公里
預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為

西北西時速 12 公里
預測 06月14日02時
中心位置在北緯 21.0 度，東經 104.1 度
中心氣壓1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 140 公里
預測 36 小時內減弱為熱帶性低氣壓

dom · 2021-6-12 21:37

JTWC12Z升格TS，判定其已達到巔峰，逐漸移向越南

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 107.3E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
   SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.8N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.6N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 106.9E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED FROM A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-6-13 04:43

JTWC判定18Z已登陸,並發布Final Warnimg

TPPN10 PGTW 121752

A. TROPICAL STORM 05W (KOGUMA)

B. 12/1730Z

C. 20.25N

D. 106.47E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

ELIAS

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (KOGUMA) WARNING NR 004
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 106.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
   SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 106.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.1N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.6N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 106.2E.
12JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (KOGUMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
45 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-6-13 04:59

而其他機構多判定尚未登陸

dom · 2021-6-13 15:02

JMA06Z降格TD，減弱消散

台風第4号(コグマ)
2021年06月13日15時45分発表

13日15時の実況
種別       熱帯低気圧
大きさ       -
強さ       -
存在地域       ラオス
中心位置       北緯20度0分(20.0度)
東経104度0分(104.0度)
進行方向、速さ       西 30km/h(15kt)
中心気圧       1000hPa

熱帶性低氣壓TD05
(原小熊颱風)
現況
2021年06月13日14時

中心位置在北緯 19.9 度，東經 103.7 度
過去移動方向西
過去移動時速 35公里
中心氣壓 1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

西北西時速 15 公里
預測 06月14日02時
中心位置在北緯 20.3 度，東經 102.0 度
中心氣壓1004百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 12 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 20 公尺
70%機率半徑 110 公里