2104 小熊於北部灣短暫發展登陸越南

dom · 2021-6-10 13:11

  輕度颱風
編號：2104 ( 05 W )
名稱：小熊 ( Koguma )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期       ：2021 年 06 月 10 日 13 時
JMA升格熱低日期：2021 年 06 月 11 日 14 時
CWB編號日期    ：2021 年 06 月 11 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 06 月 12 日 14 時
停編日期　　  ：2021 年 06 月 13 日 14 時
登陸地點　　　  ：中國海南島
                              越南清化省

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：18 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：18 m/s ( 35 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA)：20 m/s ( TS )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：35 kts ( TS )
越南中央水文氣象預報中心(NCHMF)：65 km/h
海平面最低氣壓： 995 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　： 100 公里
十級風半徑　　： ---- 公里

  過去路徑圖

  擾動編號資料
92W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-17.2N-115.5E

以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、NCHMF、颱風論壇整理製作

dom · 2021-6-10 16:34

本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-6-11 14:27 編輯

JTWC09Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.6N 115.0E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100534Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER AND THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS EXTENDING TO
APPROXIMATELY 100NM FROM THE CENTER, INDICATING THAT 92W IS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS (<15 KTS) AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30C) OFFSET BY A CURRENT LACK OF DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE
ITS TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT STEADILY CONSOLIDATES AND
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND
REORIENT THUS INCREASING DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

JMA預測兩天內增強為TD，未來將趨向海南島
20210610074030_0_Z__C_010000_20210610000000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas48_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png

dom · 2021-6-11 14:26

JTWC06Z評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 115.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.4E, APPROXIMATELY
273 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102335Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM
THE CENTER. IN ADDITION, AN 110230Z ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE SHOWS THAT
THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE CENTER,
INDICATING THAT 92W REMAINS A MONSOON DEPRESSION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-20 KTS) OFFSET BY A CURRENT
LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 92W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C) GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
STEADILY CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIES PRIOR TO MOVING OVER HAINAN
ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING
DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS 92W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, 92W WILL
RE-INTENSIFY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF EVEN WARMER WATERS AND LOWER
VWS OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW
ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

dom · 2021-6-11 15:26

本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-6-12 09:58 編輯

JMA06Z發佈GW

11日15時の実況
種別       熱帯低気圧
大きさ       -
強さ       -
存在地域       南シナ海
中心位置       北緯17度55分(17.9度)
東経113度20分(113.3度)
進行方向、速さ       西北西ゆっくり
中心気圧       1002hPa
最大風速       15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速       23m/s(45kt)

12日15時の予報
種別       台風
強さ       -
存在地域       トンキン湾
予報円の中心       北緯19度10分(19.2度)
東経108度30分(108.5度)
進行方向、速さ       西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧       998hPa
中心付近の最大風速       18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速       25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径       150km(80NM)

13日15時の予報
種別       台風
強さ       -
存在地域       トンキン湾
予報円の中心       北緯20度10分(20.2度)
東経106度40分(106.7度)
進行方向、速さ       西北西ゆっくり
中心気圧       996hPa
中心付近の最大風速       20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速       30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径       240km(130NM)

14日15時の予報
種別       熱帯低気圧
強さ       -
存在地域       ベトナム
予報円の中心       北緯21度40分(21.7度)
東経104度30分(104.5度)
進行方向、速さ       北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧       1002hPa
予報円の半径       370km(200NM)

dom · 2021-6-11 17:01

CWB升格TD05

現況
2021年06月11日14時

中心位置在北緯 17.9 度，東經 113.3 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為

西北西時速 16 公里
預測 06月12日02時
中心位置在北緯 18.7 度，東經 111.7 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 110 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為

西北西時速 20 公里
預測 06月12日14時
中心位置在北緯 19.4 度，東經 109.5 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 150 公里
預測 24 小時內有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢
預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為

西北西時速 18 公里
預測 06月13日02時
中心位置在北緯 20.0 度，東經 107.5 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 220 公里
預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為

西北西時速 14 公里
預測 06月13日14時
中心位置在北緯 20.8 度，東經 106.2 度
中心氣壓998百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 18 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 25 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 100 公里
70%機率半徑 290 公里
預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為

西北時速 7 公里
預測 06月14日14時
中心位置在北緯 21.9 度，東經 105.0 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 390 公里

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-6-11 19:56

本帖最後由老農民版夜神月於 2021-6-11 20:54 編輯

JTWC即將發布TCFA

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110820Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
A MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT CONVECTIVE BANDS PREVIOUSLY DISPLACED
NEARLY 100NM ARE NOW DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE SYSTEM STILL EXISTS UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-20
KTS) OFFSET BY A LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 92W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFY PRIOR
TO MOVING OVER HAINAN ISLAND. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS 92W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, 92W WILL RE-
INTENSIFY WHEN IT ENTERS AN AREA OF EVEN WARMER WATERS AND LOWER VWS
OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 111130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

20210611.1230.himawari-8.ir.92W.INVEST.20kts.998mb.18.1N.112.4E.100pc.jpg

20210611.1048.f17.91pct91h91v.92W.INVEST.20kts.1000mb.18N.112.7E.095pc.jpg

dom · 2021-6-11 20:06

WTPN21 PGTW 111200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9N 113.0E TO 19.3N 107.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110820Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 112.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110820Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
A MONSOON DEPRESSION, BUT CONVECTIVE BANDS PREVIOUSLY DISPLACED
NEARLY 100NM ARE NOW DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE SYSTEM STILL EXISTS UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-20
KTS) OFFSET BY A LACK OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 92W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (30-31C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFY PRIOR TO
MOVING OVER HAINAN ISLAND. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS 92W PASSES OVER HAINAN ISLAND, 92W WILL RE-
INTENSIFY WHEN IT ENTERS AN AREA OF EVEN WARMER WATERS AND LOWER VWS
OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH WILL RETROGRADE EASTWARD AND IMPROVE OUTFLOW ALLOWING FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121200Z.
//
NNNN

dom · 2021-6-12 10:05

本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-6-12 10:16 編輯

JMA00Z判定登陸海南島，逐漸深入北部灣

熱帯低気圧a
2021年06月12日10時20分発表
12日09時の実況
種別       熱帯低気圧
大きさ       -
強さ       -
存在地域       海南島
中心位置       北緯18度40分(18.7度)
東経109度40分(109.7度)
進行方向、速さ       西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧       998hPa
最大風速       15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速       23m/s(45kt)
12日21時の予報
種別       台風
強さ       -
存在地域       トンキン湾
予報円の中心       北緯19度10分(19.2度)
東経107度25分(107.4度)
進行方向、速さ       西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧       996hPa
最大風速       18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速       25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径       95km(52NM)
13日09時の予報
種別       台風
強さ       -
存在地域       ベトナム
予報円の中心       北緯20度0分(20.0度)
東経105度50分(105.8度)
進行方向、速さ       西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧       994hPa
最大風速       20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速       30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径       130km(70NM)
14日09時の予報
種別       熱帯低気圧
強さ       -
存在地域       ベトナム
予報円の中心       北緯21度5分(21.1度)
東経103度55分(103.9度)
進行方向、速さ       西北西ゆっくり
中心気圧       998hPa
予報円の半径       240km(130NM)