dom

展望降至Low

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 7 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become less organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 700
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.   
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly
unfavorable, and development of this system is now unlikely.  The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador,
and Guatemala in a day or two.  Environmental conditions appear
favorable for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly
northwestward or northward.  Regardless of development, this system
could produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico later this week and into the weekend.  See products
from your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

老農民版夜神月

NHC將展望降至0%,已幾乎不可能獲得升格

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 700 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity well west of its center.  
Significant development of this system is not expected due to strong
upper-level winds and dry air in the surrounding environment.  The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC於展望中已不再提到此系統

老農民版夜神月

NHC復編92E

2. A broad area of low pressure along the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Some gradual development is possible
over the next few days as the system moves slowly westward.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

dom

NHC展望提升至Medium

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 11 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization today
in association with a broad area of low pressure located about a
hundred miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear somewhat conducive for additional development, and
a tropical depression could still form by this weekend, as long as
the system remains over water while drifting north-northeastward.
Heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico through early next week. See products from your
local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization this
afternoon in association with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some additional development over the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 121530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 121.3W TO 12.2N 126.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121206Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 122.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7N
122.5W, APPROXIMATELY 1283 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 1222Z 91H GHS SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND NORTH OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VWS AND FAIR OUTLFOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131530Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至High,90%

1. Recent satellite and microwave imagery indicate that the area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has become better-defined while
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of
organization. Therefore, this system will likely become a tropical
depression later today or tonight as it moves slowly westward. Early
next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC21Z升格03E,首報上望50節

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 122046
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

The disturbance that has been tracked westward for the past several
days across the open waters of the the tropical eastern Pacific has
finally established a sufficiently well-defined low-level
circulation to be designated as Tropical Depression Three-E.
Convection increased last night and began to consolidate, while
satellite images and microwave data this morning indicated that
there was evidence of a well-defined low developing. This was later
confirmed by a pair of ASCAT overpasses. These overpasses showed a
compact radius of maximum winds. And, although the ASCAT-A data
had a few vectors between 30-35 kt, these were not homogeneous and
appeared unrepresentative of the system's intensity. In addition,
the rather ragged satellite appearance and the Dvorak intensity
estimate of 2.0 from SAB are suggestive that this system should be
initialized as a 30-kt depression for this advisory.

The environment surrounding the depression is moderately conducive
for gradual strengthening, with SSTs of 27-28 degrees C, mid-level
RH values between 50-60 percent, and vertical wind shear of about
5-10 kt. These conditions are expected to continue for the next 2-3
days. By 72 h, dry air and subsidence are expected to hinder any
further intensification and should begin a weakening trend. By late
in the forecast period, the system is forecast to cross the 26
degree C isotherm, which should hasten the pace of weakening. The
official intensity closely follows the HFIP corrected consensus
HCCA, which shows the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight,
and levels off its intensity by 48 h, followed by a weakening trend
after 60 h.

A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is steering it at a
somewhat uncertain 275/08 kt. This ridge is forecast by nearly all
of the models to weaken over the next couple of days, leaving the
depression in a region of very weak steering currents through
early next week. A mid-upper level trough digging southward to the
northwest of the cyclone should induce a northerly component of
motion along with an increase in forward speed by midweek. As
said, there is good agreement on the pattern, however, the models
vary greatly on how abruptly they slow the system. This is resulting
in a track model spread of about 300 n mi by 72 h. The NHC track
forecast tries to split the difference by closely following the TVCE
and TVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 11.8N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/0600Z 11.9N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  13/1800Z 11.7N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  14/0600Z 11.4N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  14/1800Z 11.0N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  15/0600Z 10.8N 126.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  15/1800Z 11.0N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  16/1800Z 12.5N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 15.2N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto