dom

NHC03Z命名Carlos

WTPZ43 KNHC 130256
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
800 PM PDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Satellite imagery indicates improved organization this evening as a
cold convective burst has expanded over the estimated low-level
circulation center. A 2032 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicated that
underneath this convective burst was also improved convective
banding, especially over the southern semicircle. The latest round
of Dvorak satellite estimates were T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35
kt from SAB. The most recent UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique
value was also T2.5/35 kt. Favoring the higher intensity estimates,
and assuming some intensification has occurred from the earlier
scatterometer passes, Tropical Depression Three-E has been upgraded
to Tropical Storm Carlos with an advisory intensity of 35 kt.

Carlos appears to be gradually turning leftward and slowing down
this evening, with the most recent estimated motion at 270/06 kt.
The mid-level ridge north of Carlos is forecast to gradually weaken,
shift northward, and then be replaced by a deep-layer trough that
will essentially shut down the steering currents near the cyclone
after 24 h. Between 36 to 48 h the motion of Carlos is likely to
slow to a crawl, generally to the west-southwest. By 72 h, another
mid-to-upper level trough digging in from the northwest will finally
induce some northerly steering, helping Carlos to gradually
accelerate to the north. The latest track forecast is a bit west of
the previous NHC forecast owing to the current motion, but remains
very close to the HFIP corrected consensus and TCVE track consensus.
It should be noted that there remains large spread in the guidance
on how quickly Carlos slows down, with the latest GFS forecast
slowing down the cyclone almost immediately, while the CMC and ECMWF
runs show a much faster track to the west-southwest.

The intensity forecast is tricky due to both the small size of the
tropical cyclone and also the less than optimal environment
surrounding the system. While deep-layer vertical wind shear is only
expected to be low to moderate over the next 72 h, mid-level shear
out of the north to northwest is a bit higher (15-25 kt) and could
occasionally import very dry mid-level air from that direction. In
fact, ECMWF-SHIPS mid-level humidity values gradually decrease to
under 500ver the next 36 h. In addition, the very slow motion of
Carlos expected between 24-72 h could potentially upwell cooler
sea-surface temperatures than the current 27-28 C values along the
forecast track. For this reason, the latest NHC intensity forecast
is fairly conservative, forecasting a peak intensity of 45 kt
between 24-60 h, which is close to the HFIP corrected consensus and
peak intensity of the most recent HWRF run. Thereafter, as the storm
begins to gain latitude, increasingly dry, stable air in addition to
decreasing sea surface temperatures should lead to gradual weakening
beyond 60 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 11.9N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  13/1200Z 11.8N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  14/0000Z 11.4N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  14/1200Z 10.8N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  15/0000Z 10.6N 127.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  15/1200Z 10.3N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  16/0000Z 10.3N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  17/0000Z 11.5N 128.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 13.5N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

老農民版夜神月

NHC新報預測巔峰已至,並將開始逐步減弱

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 132038
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 PM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Deep convection has managed to persist over the center of Carlos
throughout the day today, although the appearance of this convection
has become more ragged as the day has progressed. The blended CI
values from TAFB and SAB suggest the system still has an intensity
of 45 kt. A recent ASCAT overpass only partially captured the
circulation with peak wind vectors of 39 kt. Compensating for
possible undersampling by the instrument over only a portion of
such a compact cyclone, maintaining 45 kt seems reasonable for the
initial advisory intensity.

Dry and stable air lies just to the north and west of Carlos, and
occasional intrusions of this air into the cyclone's circulation
could disrupt convection. However, the overnight diurnal convective
maximum could overcome these intrusions over the next couple of
nights. Therefore, only slight weakening is indicated through that
time period. By 48 h, Carlos is expected to move into the stable
airmass which should further disrupt its convection, causing
additional weakening. By late in the forecast period the cyclone
is forecast to be near or have crossed the 26 degree C SST
isotherm. This should cause any remaining convection to gradually
dissipate. Although not shown in the official forecast, it is
possible Carlos will degenerate into a remnant low by the end of
the forecast period, as suggested by the GFS. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is very near the various multi-model consensus
solutions.

Carlos is beginning to show signs of slowing and turning to the
left, with the initial motion now 260/6 kt. Model guidance remains
in good agreement through 48 h, with the storm slowing and turning
west-southwest as a mid-level ridge becomes oriented SW-NE to the
north of the cyclone. There is still a vast amount of track guidance
spread beyond 72 h, but not as much as earlier today. The GFS, which
continues to be the easternmost solution has shifted well west of
its previous track, showing Carlos turning northwest in a few days
in response to a building ridge to its east, and weakening ridge to
the north. The remaining guidance maintains the ridge to the north
and shows Carlos turning west by midweek, then west-northwest by
late this week. The official NHC forecast is near the previous one
through 48 h. Beyond 48 h, large adjustments were required to
accommodate the continuing westward trends in the guidance.
Despite the abrupt shift in the official forecast for the latter
half of the period, it remains well east of the consensus and the
majority of available track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 11.7N 126.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  14/0600Z 11.4N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  14/1800Z 11.0N 128.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  15/0600Z 10.6N 129.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  15/1800Z 10.4N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  16/0600Z 10.3N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  16/1800Z 10.3N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  17/1800Z 10.7N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 11.4N 132.7W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

老農民版夜神月

昨日近巔峰時風場掃描

老農民版夜神月

NHC21Z報降TD

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 142042
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021

The convective burst that occurred this morning near the center of
Carlos has been gradually dissipating throughout the day. Satellite
imagery shows dry and stable air being entrained into the
circulation and the cyclone's center has become partially exposed.
The latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates that Carlos has
weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, and this will be the
initial advisory intensity.

Carlos is moving west-southwest at 8 kt, steered by a low- to
mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is in good
agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days,
forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The
latest NHC track forecast was adjusted to be a little faster and to
the south of the previous one to better match the trend in the
guidance, and is now near the northern end of the multi-model
consensus.

The depression is forecast to continue to traverse a dry and stable
airmass for the remainder of the week, and ongoing intrusions of
this air should inhibit the cyclone from producing long-lived
convection. The lack of deep convection should cause Carlos to
continue a slow weakening trend and eventually degenerate into a
remnant low. The official NHC forecast calls for this transition to
to occur by 48 h. However, it could occur sooner than this if
organized deep convection fails to regenerate.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 10.9N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  15/0600Z 10.5N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  15/1800Z 10.1N 132.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  16/0600Z  9.9N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
48H  16/1800Z  9.9N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  17/0600Z  9.9N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  17/1800Z 10.1N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  18/1800Z 10.3N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

老農民版夜神月

NHC預測將於24H內成為殘餘低氣壓

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 152039
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take
their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the
depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the
center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This
meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered
organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection
develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite
the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed
several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains
30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression
is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin
down, with dissipation expected within a few days.

Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's
existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and
turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed
from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z  9.8N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  16/0600Z  9.6N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
24H  16/1800Z  9.4N 135.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  17/0600Z  9.5N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  17/1800Z  9.7N 138.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

老農民版夜神月

JTWC判定已成為殘餘低氣壓

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 161448
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021

Shortwave infrared satellite imagery suggests that Carlos's center
has become less defined since last evening's scatterometer passes,
and the overall circulation is losing definition as it becomes
embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).  Despite
the few sporadic bursts of convection that have been occurring, the
system has been unable to generate persistent organized deep
convection near its center for quite some time, and Carlos is
therefore being designated as a remnant low with maximum winds of
25 kt.  Moderate westerly shear and ingestion of drier air should
cause the remnant low to weaken further, and likely dissipate within
the ITCZ in 2 to 3 days.

Geostationary and microwave imagery indicates that Carlos has sunk
a little farther south than previously estimated, and its 12-hour
heading has been toward the west-southwest (240/6 kt).  The bulk of
the track models show that the remnant low should resume a westward
motion later today and then maintain a steady west to
west-northwest heading through Friday, steered by the low-level
trade winds.  The new NHC official track forecast is a blend of the
previous forecast and the GFS-ECMWF consensus, and due to the
southward-adjusted initial position, is about a half a degree south
of the previous forecast.

This is the last advisory on Carlos.  For additional information on
the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z  8.6N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H  17/0000Z  8.6N 136.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  17/1200Z  8.7N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  18/0000Z  9.0N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  18/1200Z  9.2N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg