老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：01 L
名稱：Ana

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2021 年 05 月 20 日 10 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 05 月 22 日 15 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 05 月 25 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：40  kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1006 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
90L.INVEST.30kts.1013mb.30.4N.55.4W


  NHC：30%  

1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has developed several
hundred miles east of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure system is
expected to form within this broad cloud system a few hundred miles
northeast of Bermuda by tomorrow and produce gale-force winds. The
low is then forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer
waters on Friday, and will likely become a short-lived subtropical
cyclone late Friday and into the weekend near and to the northeast
of Bermuda.  The system is expected to move toward the north and
northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into
Monday.  For more  information on this developing system, please
see High Seas forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

dom

展望提升至Medium

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system has developed within a broad area
of cloudiness and thunderstorms about 600 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later today
while it moves generally northward. The low is forecast to move
westward and southwestward over warmer waters on Friday, and will
likely become a short-lived subtropical cyclone near and to the
northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move
toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by
late Sunday into Monday. For more  information on this developing
low pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Stewart

dom

展望提升至High

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 800 miles east
of Bermuda.  The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later
today while it moves generally northward. The low is then forecast
to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters tonight and
Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical cyclone near and to
the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move
toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by
late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing low
pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven

老農民版夜神月

EC,GFS06Z系集

dom

22Z發佈TCFA

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (90L)//
WTNT21 KNGU 202200
RMKS/1.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 34.4N 53.7W TO 36.3N 54.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 TO 50 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 34.4N 53.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2.REMARKS: A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITUATED ABOUT 670
NM NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT EXTEND A FEW HUNDRED
MILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THIS CONVECTIVE TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
WARMER OCEANIC TEMPERATURES. CONSEQUENTLY, A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212200Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

dom

展望提升至90%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low
pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of Bermuda
have become better organized during the past several hours.  The
low has not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics.  
However, if current trends continue advisories could be initiated
on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward
to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda.  Subsequently,
the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile
environment by Saturday night or Sunday.  Additional information on
this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a
tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is
forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the
western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical
depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland
over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development,
the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few
days.  Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven/Papin

老農民版夜神月

06Z最新數值預報

老農民版夜神月

NHC可能於今晚便即將升格01L

However, if current trends continue advisories could be initiated
on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward
to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda