dom

  基本資料     
編號　　　　：91 S
擾動編號日期：2021 年 04 月 07 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 04 月 11 日 20 時
91S.INVEST.15kts-993mb-9S-99.4E

dom

BoM編號24U, 評級Moderate

Another tropical low (24U) lies well to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It is expected to move east with little development on Thursday before taking a southeast track from Friday where it may enter the region. The system will continue tracking southeast over the weekend and may pass close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands while intensifying. There is a moderate chance it develops into a tropical cyclone over the weekend and could be near the Islands. Even if it remains a tropical low, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands may experience increased squally shower and thunderstorm activity during this time with some gusty winds.
Thankfully, there are no other significant systems expected in the region for at least the next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday: Low
Saturday:Moderate

dom

JTWC評級Low

     (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S
91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL
070706Z AMSR-2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED BANDING
WITH CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND EAST OF A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). INVEST 91S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG (20-25KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 91S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER AN AREA OF LOW (10-15KTS) VWS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

老農民版夜神月

風場支持，JTWC升格TD

91S INVEST 210407 1200 9.8S 91.9E SHEM 25 1005

老農民版夜神月

BoM維持展望為Moderate
JTWC則維持TD,20Z新報維持評級Low

SH, 91, 2021040818, , BEST, 0, 102S, 950E, 25, 1003, TD

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 155.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY
407 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 081731Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, REVEALS DISORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
PARTIALLY OBSCURE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ELONGATED ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS. INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P
WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST, REMAINING LARGELY
ASYMMETRIC, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

dom

BoM將發展評級降至Low

Another tropical low (24U) lies well to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It is expected to move southeast over the weekend passing close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Saturday. It is unlikely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone though the Cocos (Keeling) Islands are likely to experience increased squally shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday with gusty winds and possible heavy falls.
Thankfully, there are no other significant systems expected in the region for at least the next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low
Monday: Low

dom

BoM不再看好發展

Another tropical low (24U) was about 140 kilometres east southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands at 8am WST Saturday 10 April. It is forecast to continue moving east southeast, further from the islands. There is only a slight chance of it briefly developing overnight tonight or early Sunday, before weakening by Monday.
There are no other significant systems expected in the region for at least the next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday: Low
Monday:Very Low

dom

JTWC06Z降格擾動

91S INVEST 210411 0000 13.9S 103.3E SHEM 20 1008