簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2021-4-9 05:23
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直至目前的發展狀況始終不如預期，JTWC新報亦終於放棄上望MH
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 111.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 111.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.2S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.9S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.6S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.3S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.0S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 35.3S 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 41.9S 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 110.7E.
08APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
292 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS
ATTAINED A MORE SYMMETRICAL APPEARANCE ON ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY, AS VERTICAL SHEAR HAS LESSENED
SIGNIFICANTLY, AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS EXPANDED INTO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE, AS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY. THE CONVECTIVE MODE HAS
EVOLVED FROM THE LARGE BLOB ON THE WEST SIDE YESTERDAY TO A
SYMMETRICAL BANDING PATTERN TODAY, WITH A TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE INNER CORE DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS. THE
CYCLONE HAS NOT YET INTENSIFIED, AND IN FACT MAX WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON AN 081141Z ASCAT PASS AND SATELLITE
ESTIMATES OF 43 KT FROM SATCON AND A 081800Z T3.0 FIX FROM PGTW. THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 30C AND VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN 10 KT. HEALTHY
RADIAL CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST.
TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT WESTWARD AND
SLOWER THROUGH 36 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THIS IS DUE TO BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S THAT APPEARS
TO BE TUGGING TC 26S A BIT MORE TO THE WEST THAN RECENT MODEL RUNS
ANTICIPATED, POSSIBLY DUE TO TC 26S BEING WEAKER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY. AFTER 36 HOURS, AN ACCELERATION SOUTHWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AND GUIDES TC 26S ACROSS THE
CONTINENT AND INTO THE AUSTRALIAN BIGHT. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED JUST
BEFORE THE 72-HOUR FORECAST POINT WITHIN 40 NM OF GERALDTON,
AUSTRALIA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED LOWER BASED ON
THE DELAYED ONSET OF EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED BETWEEN 12 AND 36 HOURS, AS
THE CYCLONE HAS ACHIEVED AN ORGANIZED, SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE AND IS
EMBEDDED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW
DOWN WHILE PASSING WEST OF THE 20S, 110E POINT, WHICH ROUGHLY MARKS
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF DEEPLY WARM WATER. THE RESULTING INCREASE
IN UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER COULD LIMIT THE PEAK INTENSITY DURING
THE 36-48 HOUR PERIOD. HIGH-RESOLUTION TC MODELS HWRF AND CTCX
EXPECT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95-105 KTS. HOWEVER, THEY SEEM TO
INTENSITY TOO QUICKLY IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS, SO THE PEAK INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SET LOWER AT 90 KT AROUND 48 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR SLIGHTLY WEAKEN ON APPROACH TO
LANDFALL NEAR GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA, AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN 27-28C NEAR THE COASTLINE AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT ATTAIN
HOSTILE VALUES UNTIL JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. THE EXACT TIMING OF
LANDFALL HAS ABOVE-AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
MUCH TC 26S WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S PRIOR TO
MAKING ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z,
090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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