簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2020-12-29 05:32
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JTWC09Z報一度上望65KT(C1),但於21Z報略微調低上望至55KT
WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 20.0S 41.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 41.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.7S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.6S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8S 35.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.8S 31.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.3S 26.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 41.2E.
28DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
154 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING EAST OF THE
ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD BANDS EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED CLOUD
BANDING IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS)
BASED ON AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.2 (49 KTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY
SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS, WITH LOW (<10 KTS) VWS, AND VERY WARM (31-
32C) SSTS, BEING OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS
DIRECTLY ALONG THE AXIS OF A 200 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FAR
NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA TO SOUTHERN REGION OF MADAGASCAR. TC 07S
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS TC 07S IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE MAIN STR
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
STEERING FACTOR AND TC 07S WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
MAXIMUM SPREAD OF 90NM AT TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. ECMWF AND COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 55 KNOTS AS THE WEAK OUTFLOW AND MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL INHIBIT THE INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. THEREAFTER THE MID-
LEVELS MOISTEN, OUTFLOW SLOWLY IMPROVES AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER A
POOL OF HIGH OHC, ALLOWING FOR FASTER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU
24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AT
TAU 36 AS IT MOVES THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE ONLY FACTOR
LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION REMAINS THE OUTFLOW MECHANISM ALOFT,
AND ANALYSIS OF UPPER-LEVEL MODEL FIELDS LENDS SUPPORT TO A HIGHER
INTENSITY THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. DUE TO THE VERY WARM
SST/OHC, A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A HIGHER INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR TAU
36 JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.//
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