老農民版夜神月

  強烈熱帶風暴  
編號：04-20202021 ( 07 S )
名稱：Chalane

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2020 年 12 月 20 日 01 時
JTWC升格日期:2020 年 12 月 25 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2020 年 12 月 24 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 01 月 01 日 10 時
登陸地點　　：馬達加斯加                  
                       莫三比克

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) ：60 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：60 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：978 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
95S.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.10.9S.67.1E

以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1800Z評級Low

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.9S 67.1E, APPROXIMATELY 383 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. INVEST 95S IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

dom

MFR編號擾動區第4號，上望中等熱帶風暴。

老農民版夜神月

兩大數值目前均支持95S發展,預估後期將直襲馬達加斯加

老農民版夜神月

JTWC提升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 63.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 63.7E, APPROXIMATELY 453
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 221418Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING OVERHEAD
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. INVEST 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (<10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

MFR亦預測將於120H後以強熱帶風暴強度直襲馬達加斯加

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/4/20202021
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 4
2.A POSITION 2020/12/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 61.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/23 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
24H: 2020/12/23 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
36H: 2020/12/24 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2020/12/24 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 45
60H: 2020/12/25 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 75
72H: 2020/12/25 12 UTC: 14.1 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 75
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/12/26 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
120H: 2020/12/27 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 80

dom

MFR升格熱帶低氣壓，持續上望強烈熱帶風暴

dom

JTWC TCFA