GALE WARNING 040 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 140738 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZAZU CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4
SOUTH 174.5 WEST AT 140600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.4S 174.5W at 140600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 141500UTC
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.7S 171.2W AT 141800 UTC
AND NEAR 15.3S 171.2W AT 150600 UTC. .
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
WTPS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 168.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 168.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.5S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 168.3W.
16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
173 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT TC ZAZU HAS MAINTAINED ITS
CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DESPITE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS, PGTW AND NFFN) AND A
CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.6 (57 KTS). TC 06P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST THROUGH A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (50+ KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WITH STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPINGING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 12, TC ZAZU WILL
COMPLETE ETT AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, PLACED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 22 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 161514 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ZAZU CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 165.6W AT
161200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 34
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE EAST OF LLCC. TC ZAZU LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. ZAZU IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN, WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT
35 NAUTICAL MILES, YIELDING DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT
THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 27.1S 163.8W MOV SSE AT 20 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 29.5S 162.9W MOV SSE AT 16 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 29.9S 161.4W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 29.4S 158.4W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TC
ZAZU.
