TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTRE [1006HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 168.4W AT 120600 UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SCATTERED NEARBY THE SUPPOSED LLCC BUT ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE PICKING UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE SOUTHWEST WITH SLIGHT DEEPENING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0S
170.3W, APPROXIMATELY 28 NM NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92P IS IN AN AREA
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 92P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 170.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 170.9W, APPROXIMATELY 91
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES LOW LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. A 122104Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 122105Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 30-34 KT WINDS UNDER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVECTION WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92P IS IN AN AREA CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 130308 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 171.5W AT 130000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS. TD03F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEPRESSION INTENSIFYING. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINES PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN, WITH 0.25 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 16.8S 172.7W MOV SW AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 18.2S 173.5W MOV SW AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 18.6S 173.7W MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 19.2S 173.3W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THIS IS THE FIRST TROPICAL ADVISORY FOR TD03F. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130800 UTC.
WTPS21 PGTW 130630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 171.2W TO 19.1S 174.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 171.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 170.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 171.5W, APPROXIMATELY 122
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES LOW LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. A 122104Z METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 122105Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 30-34 KT WINDS UNDER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVECTION WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92P IS IN AN AREA CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
140630Z.
//
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