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本帖最後由 dom 於 2020-12-11 11:54 編輯
JTWC升格04P，首報上望80節(C1)，FMS亦跟隨升格TD
WTPS33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 179.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 179.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.8S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.6S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.8S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.8S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.1S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.6S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.3S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 179.4E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, WITH SUPPORT FROM AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED LLCC IN A 102147Z ASCAT-B PASS,
WHICH AT THE TIME SHOWED THE CIRCULATION UNDER THE CONVECTIVE PLUME.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), AND THE ASCAT-B PASS
MENTIONED EARLIER, WHICH DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) WESTERLY VWS EMINATING FROM A
POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY OF INVEST 91P OFFSETTING ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LAYER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH. TC 04P IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SHALLOW STR
THROUGH TAU 24, WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IN A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE FORECAST BECOMES EXCEPTIONALLY
CHALLENGING, AS THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO BINARY INTERACTION
WITH INVEST AREA 91P. AFTER TAU 24, THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE CAPTURED
BY ONE ANOTHER IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND COCOONED WITHIN AN UPPER-
LEVEL COL REGION BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTH, THE NER TO THE NORTH
AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE EAST AND WEST, LEADING TO AN OVERALL
QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AS THE TWO SYSTEMS FUJIWHARA AROUND ONE
ANOTHER. IT IS EXPECTED THAT AROUND TAU 48 TC 04P WILL ABSORB INVEST
AREA 91P FORMING A MUCH LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE, WHICH WILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BETWEEN VANUATU AND FIJI THROUGH TAU 120. AFTER TAU
36, AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARDS ONE ANOTHER, THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TC 04P, WITH DECREASED VWS
AND MUCH IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT, WITH MULTIPLE POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS IN THE OUTCOME OF THE BINARY INTERACTION. THE EGRR AND
AFUM MODELS INDICATE THAT TC 04P WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY INTERACTION
WITH 91P AND RAPIDLY TRANSIT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CORAL SEA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A NORTHWARD LOOP, BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF ALL OTHER MODEL TRACKERS. FINALLY THE
ECMWF SHOWS SOME INTERACTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH, THEN A QUASI-
STATIONARY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAIN CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER, IN LIGHT OF THE VERY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AND INABILITY OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO EFFECTIVELY MODEL
THE COMPLEXITIES OF BINARY INTERACTION, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND
120300Z.//
NNNN
GALE WARNING 013 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 110113 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD01F [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.2S 179.7E AT 110000UTC. TD01F MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF TD01F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 06 TO 18 HOURS. AREA OF GALES EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE DISTURBANCE. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 012.
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