(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.3S 171.8W, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SOMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
080625Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 080825Z ASCAT-A IMAGE
REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 90P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90P WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND TRACK
SOUTHWEST PASSING EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 080907 UTC. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.9S 170.8W AT 080600UTC. TD01F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 IR IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER GOOD DIVERGENT AREA WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT WESTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW. ********************************************************************* *************** NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 082358 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F CENTRE [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.0S
172.7W AT 082100UTC. TD01F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI 8 VIS IMAGERY.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SUPPOSED LLCC AND ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVE. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER GOOD
DIFFLUENT AREA WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
WESTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 090835 UTC. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.4S 174.2W AT 090600UTC. TD01F MOVING WESTWARDS AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 IR IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENT AREA WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT WESTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 092343 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.6S
176.3W AT 092100UTC. TD01F MOVING WESTWARDS AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 VIS IMAGERY.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC AND ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM ARE AREAS OF LOW WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUT
FLOW WHICH ARE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLONE FORMATION. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARDS OVER THIS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
WESTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
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