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約於印度東南部附近登陸，將深入內陸並逐漸減弱

04B NIVAR 201126 0000 12.3N 79.4E IO 55 982

北印度洋热带气旋公报
预报：张 玲 签发：吕心艳 2020 年 11 月 26 日 10 时
“尼瓦”强度将逐渐减弱

孟加拉湾强气旋风暴“尼瓦”（NIVAR）于昨天（25日，北京时，下同）晚上加强为特强气旋风暴，并已于今天（26日）凌晨在印度（India）泰米尔纳德邦（Tamil Nadu）的本地治里（Pondicherry）附近沿海登陆（33米/秒，12级，特强气旋风暴级，相当于我国的台风级），其中心今天上午8点钟仍位于印度泰米尔纳德邦境内，就是北纬12.6度、东经79.6度，中心附近最大风力有10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级），中心最低气压为985百帕。

预计，“尼瓦”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

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JTWC發佈FW

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IMD降格D，逐漸消散

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JTWC降評low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 04B) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 14.0N 80.7E, APPROXIMATELY 57 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI,
INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A
262321Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS THE FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVING BACK OVER WATER,
COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 261427Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
SHOWED THE LLCC STILL OVER LAND WITH 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SOUTH. 04B IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HEAVILY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE INDIAN COASTLINE. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF 04B QUICKLY MOVE BACK
OVERLAND AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE WITHIN TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

IMD降LPA,並認為系統殘餘將重新出海

老農民版夜神月

GFS亦認為04B將短暫出海後24小時內再次登陸印度並消散

老農民版夜神月

於今晚二度登陸印度,JTWC1800Z取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 04B) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 80.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.