(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.8N 88.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 504 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD WITH SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST. A 1202Z MHS NOAA-19
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SMALL AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET
TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. 97B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD,
INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD OVER SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N 87.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 85.7E, APPROXIMATELY 462 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 220418Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. INVEST 97B IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE
(15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 97B WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING TO WARNING
THRESHOLD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
WTIO21 PGTW 221530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.9N 85.6E TO 10.7N 82.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 85.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 85.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 85.4E, APPROXIMATELY 423 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 220800Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231530Z.//
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