(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.8S 65.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 65.9E, APPROXIMATELY 403 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. A 131848Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH WINDS OF
15-20 KTS IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. INVEST 93S IS LOCATED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 65.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 65.9E, APPROXIMATELY 403 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. A 131848Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KTS IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. INVEST 93S IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTXS21 PGTW 150830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 66.7E TO 10.4S 72.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 67.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9S 66.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 67.1E, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL TURNING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST. A 150221Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS LOW
LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 93S WILL REMAIN AT
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH TC 01S, AND LOSING
STRENGTH BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160830Z.//
NNNN
Bulletin du 15 novembre à 22H29 locales Réunion:
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20202021.
Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 55 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 75 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 999 hPa.
Position le 15 novembre à 22 heures locales Réunion: 9.0 Sud / 68.6 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 1915 km au secteur: NORD-EST
Distance de Mayotte: 2590 km au secteur: EST
Déplacement: EST, à 17 km/h.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le Bulletin d'Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.
WTXS21 PGTW 160830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION (INVEST 93S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150821Z NOV 20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 150830)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 150830). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 93S), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 67.8E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 71.3E, APPROXIMATELY 146 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION
SHEARED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 160335Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 93S IS
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (30+ KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 93S
WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST
FOR THIS SYSTEM, IT IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.//
NNNN
WTIO31 FMEE 161234
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/2/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 2
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/11/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6 S / 73.0 E
(NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 18 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 240
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/11/2020 00 UTC: 11.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
24H: 17/11/2020 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
36H: 18/11/2020 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=1.5
AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CIRCULATION EST DEVENU APPARENTE
SUR LES IMAGERIES VISIBLES A L'ECART DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE.
MALGRE CELA LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER RAPIDEMENT VERS L'EST
CE QUI LAISSE PENSER QUE LE FLUX D'OUEST EST ENCORE MARQUE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD. L'INTENSITE EST DONC MAINTENUE A 30KT.
LA DEPRESSION DEVRAIT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES COMMENCER À
S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD DANS LE SILLAGE DE LA CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONNAIRE DE ALICIA. LES MODELES S'ACCORDENT GLOBALEMENT SUR
CETTE PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE.
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