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天篷大元帥|2020-10-8 23:03
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離開半島後颶風警告在美利堅合眾國南部沿海接力生效。
原文：
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT DELTA HAS
STRENGTHENED...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 92.7W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from
High Island to Sabine Pass.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from High
Island to Sabine Pass.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the
north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north-
northeastward motion by Friday afternoon or Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the central Gulf
of Mexico today, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday,
and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or Friday night.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105
mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again
by tonight. Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the
northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after
the center moves inland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area
Friday night.
RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
this weekend.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday
over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi
SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN ZCZC MIATCPAT1全部
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
公告
颶風三角洲諮詢號碼16
新創建國家颶風中心邁阿密FL AL262020
CDT 1000 AM 2020年10月8日星期四
...諾阿和空軍後備隊颶風獵人報告
加強...
...預期的颶風狀況和威脅生命的風暴潮
星期五在北部灣沿岸的部分地區開始...
CDT 1000 AM ... 1500 UTC ...信息摘要
-----------------------------------------------
地點... 24.0N 92.7W
關於400米... 645公里的卡梅隆路易斯安那州
最大持續風... 105 MPH ... 165 KM / H
當前運動...西北速度或14英里/小時時的310度... 22 KM / H
最低中央壓力... 968 MB ... 28.59英寸
手錶和警告
--------------------
更改此建議：
風暴潮警告現已從德克薩斯州海岸生效
高島到薩賓山口。
颶風警告已從高地開始對德克薩斯州海岸生效
島到薩賓通道。
注意和警告摘要：
風暴潮警告對...生效
*高島德克薩斯州到密西西比州的海洋溫泉包括
Calcasieu湖，朱紅灣，龐恰特雷恩湖，毛里帕斯湖，
和博恩湖
颶風警告正在針對...
*德州高島到路易斯安那州摩根城
熱帶風暴警告對...有效
*高島西至德克薩斯州聖路易斯山口
*路易斯安那州摩根城以東至珠江口，
包括新奧爾良
*龐恰特雷恩湖和莫里帕斯湖
熱帶風暴監視對...
*珠江口以東至密西西比州聖路易斯灣
風暴潮警告表示存在危及生命的危險
洪水氾濫，由於水從海岸線向內陸移動，
在接下來的36小時內，在指示的位置。為一個
危險區域的描述，請參見國家天氣
Service Storm Surge監視/警告圖形，可從以下位置獲得
hurricanes.gov。這是威脅生命的情況。人數
這些區域內的人員應採取所有必要措施
保護生命和財產免受不斷上升的水和潛在的威脅
其他危險情況。及時疏散疏散等
當地官員的指示。
颶風警告表示預期會發生颶風
警告區域內的某處。通常會發出警告
在預期的首次出現之前36小時
熱帶風暴風，外部條件
準備困難或危險。保護生命的準備
和財產應趕緊完成。
熱帶風暴警告表示熱帶風暴條件是
預期在警告區域內的某處。
熱帶風暴監視意味著熱帶風暴條件是
可能在手錶區域內。
有關您所在地區的風暴信息，包括可能的
內陸手錶和警告，請監控您的發行產品
當地國家氣象局預報辦公室。
討論與展望
----------------------
CDT 1000 AM（1500 UTC）時，颶風三角洲的中心位於
北緯24.0，西經92.7。三角洲正在移動
向西北靠近14英里/小時（22公里/小時），並且此運動
今天預計前進速度會降低。轉向
預計北將在今晚深夜發生，隨後是北
星期五下午或星期五晚上之前向東北移動。在
預報軌跡，三角洲的中心將在海灣中部移動
今天星期五在墨西哥西北部墨西哥灣上空的墨西哥
然後在星期五在颶風警告區內移入內陸
下午或星期五晚上。
來自NOAA和空軍預備役颶風獵人飛機的報告
表明最大持續風已增加至105
時速（165公里/小時），陣風較高。進一步加強是
預報，預計達美航空將再次成為主要颶風
到今晚。隨著Delta接近
週五墨西哥灣北部沿海地區，預計之後將迅速減弱
中心向內陸移動。
颶風的風向向外延伸到距地面35英里（55公里）
中心和熱帶風暴力量的風向外延伸達125英里
（205公里）。
颶風報告的最新最低中心壓力
獵人的飛機是968 mb（28.59英寸）。
危害土地的危害
----------------------
台達的關鍵訊息可以在熱帶氣旋中找到
在AWIPS標頭MIATCDAT1，WMO標頭WTNT41下的討論
KNHC，並在網站上www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml。
風暴潮：危險的風暴潮和
潮汐將導致海岸附近通常乾燥的地區被洪水淹沒
從海岸線向內陸移動的上升水域。水可以
在指示的某處達到地面以下高度
漲潮時出現峰值浪湧的區域...
洛克菲勒野生動物保護區（LA）至洛杉磯富丘恩港（包括）
硃砂灣... 7-11英尺
洛杉磯霍利海灘到洛杉磯洛克菲勒野生動物保護區... 4-7英尺
路易斯安那州Fourchon港至密西西比河河口... 4-6英尺
Sabine Pass到達洛杉磯霍利海灘... 3-5英尺
Calcasieu Lake ... 3-5英尺
德克薩斯州高島市到塞賓山口... 2-4英尺
密西西比河河口至海洋泉，MS ... 2-4英尺
博恩湖，龐恰特雷恩湖和莫里帕斯湖... 2-4英尺
海洋泉（MS）到達AL / FL邊界，包括Mobile Bay ... 1-3英尺
薩賓湖... 1-3英尺
德克薩斯州奧康納港到德克薩斯州高島，包括加爾維斯頓灣...
1-3英尺
最深的水將發生在附近和附近的沿海地區
登陸位置的東部，浪湧將在此處
伴隨著巨大而危險的波浪。浪湧相關的洪水
取決於潮汐和潮汐週期的相對時間，
並可能在短距離內變化很大。有關信息
特定於您所在地區，請查看您當地發布的產品
國家氣象服務預報辦公室。
風：颶風中預計會有颶風條件
週五下午或晚上，熱帶風暴
預計到週五初該地區的情況。熱帶
熱帶風暴警告中預計會有暴風雨天氣
星期五，可能在熱帶風暴監視區
星期五晚上。
降雨：週五至週六，達美航空預計將生產5架
到10英寸的雨水，孤立的最大值為15英寸，
從西南到路易斯安那州中南部。這些降雨量
會導致大量的山洪，城市，小溪洪水
輕微至偏遠的中等河道洪水。
對於極端的德克薩斯州東部，進入路易斯安那州北部，阿肯色州南部
和密西西比州西部，三角洲地區預計將生產3至6英寸
雨，孤立的最大總量為10英寸。這些降雨
數量將導致閃電，城市，小溪流和孤立的未成年人
河水氾濫。
隨著三角洲向內陸移動的越來越多，下雨1至3英寸，局部
預計在俄亥俄河谷和中大西洋地區會有更高的數量
這週末。
龍捲風：今晚至週五可能會發生幾場龍捲風
在路易斯安那州和密西西比州南部
衝浪：來自達美的浪潮將開始影響到部分
今天晚些時候墨西哥灣北部和西部海岸。這些膨脹可能
導致危及生命的衝浪和翻車事故。請
請諮詢當地氣象局的產品。
下一個建議
-------------
CDT下午100點的下一個中級諮詢。
CDT下午400點提供下一個完整的諮詢。
$$
預報員貝文
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