0908morakot

  四級颶風  
編號：26 L
名稱：Delta


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2020 年 10 月 03 日 23 時
命名日期　　：2020 年 10 月 05 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 10 月 11 日 19 時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥、美國-路易斯安那州

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：125  kt ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：953 百帕
  擾動編號資料  
92L.INVEST.25kts-1008mb-13.4N-70.6W

  NHC:20%  

1. A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and
thunderstorms over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the
ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and portions of the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.  
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then
into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

NHC提升評級至Medium,40%/70%

1. A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or
middle portions of next week while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western
Caribbean Sea and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next
few days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

老農民版夜神月

FWC-N發布TCFA
NHC展望提升至High,70%

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT //
WTNT21 KNGU 041400
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/041400Z OCT 20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 041300)//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 75.3W TO 17.1N 79.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 75.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF JAMACIA. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 TO 12 KT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 051400Z.//

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is located over
the central Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles southeast of
Jamaica.  The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
beginning to show some signs of organization.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or
two.  The system should move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the central and western Caribbean Sea today through Tuesday,
and then move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba,
and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and interests on
those islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC於21Z升格潛在熱帶氣旋(PTC)26L，預報後期將於墨西哥灣內達到巔峰

000
WTNT41 KNHC 042102
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Visible satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data indicated
that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure in the
central Caribbean Sea has gradually become better defined.  The
associated deep convection does not yet have enough organization to
classify the system as a tropical depression, but there has been
some increase in convection just south of the estimated center.  The
earlier ASCAT data revealed peak winds of around 30 kt over the
northeastern portion of the circulation, and that is the basis for
the initial intensity.  The disturbance is located over warm waters
and in a moist environment, but there is some modest northeasterly
shear over the system.  The global models indicate that the shear
will decrease overnight, and the oceanic and atmospheric environment
is expected to quite favorable for both the development of a
tropical cyclone and subsequent strengthening of the system over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.  The
intensity guidance is quite aggressive, but also assumes that the
system already has a tropical cyclone structure.  Therefore, the NHC
intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus during
the first 24-48 hours, but does show the system at or near hurricane
strength by the time is near western Cuba on Tuesday.  Environmental
conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and additional strengthening is
predicted during that time.  Late in the period, conditions are
forecast to become less conducive as the vertical wind shear
increases and the system nears the cooler shelf waters of the
northern Gulf of Mexico.

The disturbance is moving west-northwestward or 290/9 kt.  A mid-
to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build
westward over the next few days, which should continue to steer the
system west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The forward speed
of the system is likely to increase in 48 to 72 hours while it
moves between the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma to its southwest.  
After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn
northward around the western portion of the ridge and a mid- to
upper-level trough over the south-central United States.  The track
guidance is in relatively good agreement during the first 48 to 72
hours, but there is increasing spread thereafter.  Users are
reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors
are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in
portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday
afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could
lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late
this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the
track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk
of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast
from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these
areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for
updates to the forecast during the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 16.7N  76.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  05/0600Z 17.1N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H  05/1800Z 18.0N  79.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  06/0600Z 19.0N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  06/1800Z 21.0N  82.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  07/0600Z 23.1N  85.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  07/1800Z 24.7N  87.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  08/1800Z 26.5N  90.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 28.6N  90.3W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

老農民版夜神月

12Z升格TS,命名Delta

000
WTNT31 KNHC 051139
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

天篷大元帥

稍早颶風警告在墨西哥加勒比海沿岸生效。強度上美國國家颶風中心以認定為颶風。

原文：

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DELTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 80.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a
Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar Del Rio and
discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the province of Artemisa and
the Isle of Youth.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta Herrero northward to Tulum and from Rio Lagartos westward to
Progresso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum
* Rio Lagartos to Progresso

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 80.3 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night.  
On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass
southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the
northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan
Channel Tuesday night.  Delta is forecast to move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico late Wednesday and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130
km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional rapid strengthening is expected
during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major
hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the
Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to
right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
by early Tuesday.  In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions
are expected in the warning area Tuesday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected on Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area Tuesday night and
Wednesday.  In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area Tuesday night and tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Tuesday night.

RAINFALL:  Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
maximum rainfall as high as 10 inches possible, across portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. This rainfall may
result in areas of significant flash flooding.

Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated
higher amounts, across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy
rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
southeastern United States.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN

機器翻譯(僅供參考)：

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

通報
颶風三角洲諮詢號碼6
NWS美國國家颶風中心邁阿密佛羅里達州AL262020
1100 PM EDT星期一2020年10月5日

... DELTA繼續加強...
...預期週二晚上在東北颶風情況下
尤卡坦半島。 ..


1100 PM EDT摘要... 0300 ... UTC信息
---------------------------------- -------------
位置... 16.8N 80.3W約
170米... 270公里NAMAIL牙買加西南
關於180米... 295公里SSE大開
曼最大持續風.. .80 MPH ... 130 KM / H
當前運動... WW或295度在7 MPH下... 11 KM / H
最低中央壓力... 977 MB ... 28.85英寸


手錶和警告
-----
對此建議的
更改：
古巴政府已將
皮納爾·德爾·里約和皮納爾省的颶風警告替換為熱帶風暴警告。
停止了對阿爾特米薩省和
青年島的颶風監視。

墨西哥政府已經發布了熱帶風暴警告，從
蓬塔埃雷羅（Punta Herrero）向北到圖盧姆（Tulum），從里約拉加托斯（Rio Lagartos）向西到
Progresso。

效果的警告和警告摘要：

颶風警告正針對...
*圖盧姆飛往里約拉加托斯墨西哥
*科蘇梅爾

熱帶風暴警告正針對...
*開曼群島，包括小開曼和開曼布拉克
*古巴Pinar del Rio省
*青年島
* Punta Herrero至Tulum
* Rio Lagartos至Progresso

一項熱帶風暴監視正在生效...
*古巴La Habana省

A颶風警告意味著颶風狀況可能會
在警告區域。通常會
在預期的第一次
熱帶風暴作用風發生前36小時發出警告，這種情況會使外部
準備工作變得困難或危險。保護生命
和財產的準備工作應盡快完成。

熱帶風暴警告意味著
在36小時內預計在警告區域內的某個地方會有熱帶風暴情況。

熱帶風暴監視意味著
通常在48小時內在監視區域內可能發生熱帶風暴情況。

有關特定於您所在地區的風暴信息，請監視
您的國家氣象服務部門發布的產品。


討論和展望
----------------------
在美國東部時間1100 PM（0300 UTC），颶風三角洲的中心位於
北緯16.8，西經80.3。達美航空正
朝著7英里（11公里/小時）的西北方向移動。
預計週二至週三晚上將向西北移動。  
在預測軌道上，預計達美三角洲的中心將在
周二早些時候經過開曼群島的西南部，並接近
尤卡坦半島東北部和尤卡坦
海峽週二晚上。預計達美航空將在
周三早些時候移至墨西哥南部海灣，並
在周三和周四晚移至墨西哥中南部。

空軍預備役颶風獵人飛機的數據表明
，
陣風較高時，最大持續風速增加到接近80 mph（130 km / h）。預計
在第二天左右會進一步快速增強，並且在三角洲
靠近尤卡坦半島時，三角洲將成為主要颶風。

颶風將向
中心延伸最多10英里（20公里），熱帶風暴將向中心延伸最多70英里
（110公里）。

估計的最小中心壓力為977 mb（28.85英寸）。


危害土地
----------------------
Delta的關鍵信息可以在熱帶氣旋
討論中的AWIPS標頭MIATCDAT1，WMO標頭WTNT41
KNHC下以及網址為www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml。

風暴潮：一場危險的風暴潮將使
颶風預警區內尤卡坦半島
沿岸的水位比正常潮位高出4至7英尺，而該颶風預警區位於
該中心著陸的位置附近和右側。在海岸附近，海浪
將伴隨著巨大而危險的海浪。

風：開曼群島預計會出現熱帶風暴
在星期二早些時候。在尤卡坦半島，
預計週二晚在警告區域將出現颶風，而
在周二將出現熱帶風暴。熱帶風暴條件，
預計將在熱帶風暴警報區域週二晚間和
週三 在古巴，預計
週二晚上在警告區域將
出現熱帶風暴，而在周二晚上在監視區域可能會出現熱帶風暴。

降雨：到本周中旬，預計在
尤卡坦半島北部的
部分地區，三角洲將產生4至6英寸的降雨，最大降雨可能高達10英寸。降雨可能
導致大量的山洪氾濫。

到本周中旬
，
預計在牙買加，開曼群島和古巴西部的部分地區，三角洲將產生2至4英寸的降雨，且降雨量偏高。降雨可能導致
山洪氾濫和泥石流。

本週末至週末，預計達美航空
將把墨西哥灣中部部分地區的暴雨帶入美國
東南部。


下次諮詢
-------------
東部夏令時200 AM的下一個中間諮詢。
美國東部時間上午500點提供下一個完整的諮詢。

$$
預報員Cangialosi

NNNN

老農民版夜神月

發展已遠超預期,經實測後NHC特報判定已達C4,定強115KT
即將擦過墨西哥,NHC上望12H後120KT

000
WTNT61 KNHC 061520
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  This makes
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 18.2N  82.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  07/0000Z 19.4N  84.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  07/1200Z 21.0N  87.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  08/0000Z 22.3N  89.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  08/1200Z 23.4N  91.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
60H  09/0000Z 24.6N  92.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
72H  09/1200Z 26.3N  92.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  10/1200Z 30.5N  91.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
120H  11/1200Z 34.5N  87.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

老農民版夜神月

於凌晨時分達第一次巔峰，NHC於21Z報中給出125節，今早00Z則判定已稍微減弱至120節
即將登陸墨西哥，未來進入墨西哥灣可能將能迎來第二次的巔峰

AL, 26, 2020100618,   , BEST,   0, 185N,  834W, 120,  956, HU,  64, NEQ,   25,   20,   15,   20, 1007,  180,  10, 145,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      DELTA, D, 12, NEQ,  120,   45,   30,   90, genesis-num, 055,
AL, 26, 2020100700,   , BEST,   0, 192N,  845W, 120,  956, HU,  34, NEQ,   90,   80,   60,   80, 1007,  180,  10,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      DELTA, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 055,

INIT  06/2100Z 18.9N  84.1W  125 KT 145 MPH