老農民版夜神月

NHC新報已轉而不再看好能長期發展進入中太平洋,預測48H內即將消亡

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 161446
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020

At the moment the depression is nearly devoid of convection, except
for a very small weakening burst over 100 n mi from the center. In
fact, there has not been any deep convection within 50 n mi of the
center since yesterday, and this convection has been sporadic. The
available Dvorak T-numbers only support 25 kt. However, given that
an earlier ASCAT overpass had a few vectors with higher values, the
initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is barely fitting
the definition of a tropical cyclone due to the lack of persistent
organized deep convection. If the system is not able to generate
sustained organized convection, it could become a post-tropical
remnant low at any time. Simulated satellite imagery from the global
models suggest this lack of persistent convection may continue, and
therefore the official forecast no longer keeps the system a
tropical cyclone through 5 days. The official intensity forecast is
generally in line with the intensity consensus aids throughout the 5
day time period, but makes the cyclone post-tropical in a couple of
days. It should be noted that the timing of the system becoming
post-tropical is highly uncertain and could happen much sooner or
later than indicated.

The cyclone is moving slowly north-northwestward at 3 kt. A weak
low- to -mid level ridge is forecast to build north of the cyclone
over the next couple of days. This should result in a slow motion
while the depression turns to the northwest, then west. By midweek,
a more west-southwestward motion is anticipated. The latest NHC
forecast is is in between the previous one and the track consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 13.7N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  17/0000Z 14.1N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  17/1200Z 14.3N 134.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  18/0000Z 14.4N 135.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  18/1200Z 14.3N 136.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  19/0000Z 13.9N 137.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  19/1200Z 13.4N 137.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  20/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1200Z 12.2N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

t02436

FNMOC已復編，NHC展望10%，即將進入中太。

1. A small area of showers and thunderstorms over the far southwestern
portion of the basin are associated with the remnant low of Tropical
Depression Ten-E.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development, and regeneration of this system is not
anticipated while it moves slowly westward toward the central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

周子堯@FB

FNMOC 19/07Z再度撤編！

周子堯@FB

FNMOC撤編後，NHC再度對其恢復展望，並預測在5日內有10%機會成旋

2. An area of showers and thunderstorms located 930 miles southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii is forecast to linger in that area for the next few
days. The showers and thunderstorms are the remnants of Tropical
Depression Ten-E.  Environmental conditions do not appear conducive
for significant development, and regeneration of this system is not
anticipated.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.