霧峰追風者

NHC 最新一報實測升Cat.1( 70KT)。

000
WTNT44 KNHC 310406
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaias Special Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found that Isaias has become
a hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds so far were 87 kt at 850
mb, with believable SFMR values of at least 65 kt.  A blend of
these values gives an initial wind speed of 70 kt.  Some further
strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours before increasing
southwesterly shear could weaken the system.  The intensity forecast
is modified upward from 5-10 kt through 48 hours and unchanged after
that time.

There are no changes to the previous track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern
Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the southeastern Bahamas overnight, central
and northwestern Bahamas late Friday and Saturday, and Hurricane
Warnings are in effect for these areas. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect.  While storm surge watches are not currently needed
for this area, they may be required on Friday if the forecast track
shifts closer to the coast.  Heavy rains associated with Isaias may
begin to affect South Florida and east-Central Florida beginning
late Friday night, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and
spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast
through early next week.  The details of the track and intensity
forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests
along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of
Isaias and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0400Z 20.4N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  31/1200Z 21.6N  73.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  01/0000Z 23.5N  76.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  01/1200Z 25.2N  77.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  02/0000Z 26.7N  79.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  02/1200Z 28.3N  79.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  03/0000Z 30.0N  79.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  04/0000Z 34.6N  76.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 42.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

老農民版夜神月

即將北上橫掃美國東岸

444
WTNT44 KNHC 010855
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Isaias has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery this
morning, likely due to the impact of westerly shear and dry air
entrainment.  The area of central convection has shrunk in size,
although radar data from the Bahamas shows some banding near the
center and occasional attempts to wrap up an eyewall.  Also, a dry
slot is now present in the eastern semicircle between the central
convection and the outer banding.  The last Hurricane Hunter
mission indicated that the maximum winds had increased to near 75
kt, so that is maintained for this advisory.  NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the
storm during the next several hours.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 315/10 kt.  The track
forecast philosophy remains unchanged, as Isais should continue to
move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge today
and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the
ridge on Sunday.  After that, the storm should recurve into the
mid-latitude westerlies, with a turn toward the north-northeast and
northeast with an increase in forward speed likely.  The track
guidance envelope has shifted a little to the east near the Florida
coast and calls for a slower forward motion that the previous
guidance.  Thus, the new forecast track has been adjusted a little
east of, and slower than, the previous track.

The hurricane is currently undergoing about 25 kt of westerly
vertical shear, and some mid-level dry air is present west of the
center.  This combination should prevent any more intensification,
and, while Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes
near the Florida coast, at least slight weakening should occur
during this time.  Current indications from the global models are
that the storm will continue to experience strong shear as it
recurves, and thus the intensity forecast follows the previous
forecast in calling for weakening during this time.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the
Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Minor river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia early next week.

5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early
next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias
and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 23.9N  77.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  01/1800Z 25.0N  78.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  02/0600Z 26.3N  79.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  02/1800Z 27.6N  79.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  03/0600Z 29.1N  80.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  03/1800Z 31.2N  79.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  04/0600Z 34.0N  77.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  05/0600Z 41.5N  71.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  06/0600Z 47.5N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

天篷大元帥

前陣子一度減弱為熱帶風暴，
剛剛重回颶風強度，
南卡羅來納州至北卡羅來納州交界海岸在颶風警告範圍。原文：

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach has been
discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning south of Folly Beach has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Folly Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Stonington Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Stonington to Eastport Maine

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 79.0 West.
Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h),
and this general motion accompanied by a gradual increase in forward
speed is expected through tonight followed by a further increase in
the forward speed on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will approach the coasts of northeastern South Carolina and
southern North Carolina within the hurricane warning area during the
next few hours.  The center will then move inland across eastern
North Carolina early Tuesday morning, move along the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern
United States Tuesday night.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to ear
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening
is possible before landfall. After landfall, only gradual weakening
is anticipated after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and
moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 41004 recently reported sustained winds
of 60 mph (96 km/h), and sustained tropical-storm-force winds have
been reported along the South Carolina coast between Charleston and
Georgetown.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and buoy data is 988
mb (29.18 inches).  NOAA buoy 41004 recently reported a minimum
pressure of 988.9 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft

Folly Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft

Savannah River to Folly Beach SC...1-3 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening and tonight,
with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore in the next few
hours.

Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region, tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force
possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.

Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible near northeastern South
Carolina coastal areas by early this evening, before spreading
across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple
of tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia
northeastward into southern New England.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

機器翻譯(翻譯粗劣 僅供完全不懂原文的用戶參考)：

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

通報
颶風伊薩亞斯中級諮詢號碼27A
NWS美國國家颶風中心邁阿密佛羅里達州AL092020
800 PM EDT星期一2020年8月3日

...伊薩亞斯恢復颶風力量，並有望使
登陸今晚危險風和風暴潮...
...強風和大雨，如從東卡羅來納
州到大西洋中部海岸，今晚和星期二...


美國東部時間800 PM匯總... 0000 UTC ...信息
----------- -----------------------------------
位置... 32.8N 79.0W
關於60 MI ... 100公里E查爾斯頓南卡羅來納州
約60 MI ... 100公里S默特爾海灘南卡羅來納州
最大持續風... 75 MPH ... 120 KM / H
當前運動... NNE或15度以16 MPH ... 26 KM / H
最低中央壓力... 988 MB ... 29.18英寸表


和警告
--------------------
更改此建議：

Edisto海灘以南的熱帶風暴警告已經
停止。愚蠢海灘以南的風暴潮警告已
停止。

觀看次數和警告的摘要：

風暴潮警告正在生效...
*南卡羅來納州的愚蠢海灘至北卡羅來納州的恐懼之角
*帕姆利科和阿爾伯馬爾山脈的聲音，包括尼茲
河和帕姆利科河
*俄勒岡州入口北卡羅來納州至北卡羅來納州/弗吉尼亞邊界

風暴潮監視有效...
*恐慌角至俄勒岡州進口北卡羅萊納州

颶風警告有效...
*南桑提河南卡羅來納州南卡羅來納州衝浪市

熱帶風暴警告有效。 。
*艾迪斯托海灘南卡羅來納州南桑蒂河南卡羅來納州
Surf City的北卡羅萊納州*北斯托寧頓緬因州
*帕姆利科和雅寶聲音
*切薩皮克灣
*潮波托馬克河
*特拉華灣
·龍島和長島
*瑪莎葡萄園島，楠塔基特，和布洛克島（Block Island）

的熱帶風暴監視對...有效
*在Stonington以北到緬因州Eastport

“風暴潮警告”表示
，
在指示的位置，由於上升的水從海岸線向內陸移動，存在危及生命的洪水氾濫的危險。有關危險區域的描述，
請參閱
hurricanes.gov上的國家氣象局風暴潮監視/警告圖形。這是威脅生命的情況。
這些地區的人員應採取一切必要
措施，保護生命和財產免受水位上升以及
其他危險情況的影響。迅速遵守
當地官員的疏散和其他指示。

風暴潮守望台意味著
從上升的水從
海岸線向內陸移動，有可能危及生命。

颶風警告意味著颶風狀況可能會
在警告區域內發生。

熱帶風暴警告是指
在警告區域內的某個地方，通常在36
小時內，預計會有熱帶風暴情況。

熱帶風暴監視意味著
通常在48小時內在監視區域內可能發生熱帶風暴情況。

有關特定於您所在地區的風暴信息，包括可能的
內陸監視和警告，請監控您
當地的國家氣象服務預報辦公室發布的產品。


討論與展望
----------------------
在美國東部時間800 PM（0000 UTC），位於以賽亞斯颶風的中心
由NOAA多普勒氣象雷達和空軍儲備颶風
獵人飛機在北緯32.8，西經79.0附近進行。
以賽亞斯正在朝東北方靠近，時速為16英里（26公里/小時），時速為16英里/小時（26英里/小時），
並伴隨著前進
速度的逐步提高，預計今晚
將在周二進一步提高前進速度。在預報軌道上，以
賽亞斯的中心將
在
接下來的幾個小時內到達颶風預警區內的南卡羅萊納州東北部和北卡羅萊納州南部的海岸。然後，該中心將在
周二清晨跨北卡羅來納州東部向內陸移動，沿著北卡羅萊納州的海岸移動。
星期二在大西洋中部各州，並在
星期二晚上繼續穿越美國東北部。

來自NOAA多普勒天氣雷達和颶風獵人（Hurricane Hunter）
飛機的數據表明，
陣風更高時，最大持續風速增加到每小時75英里（120公里/小時）。
登陸前可能需要進一步加強。登陸
後，以賽亞斯登陸卡羅來納州並
在今晚和周二穿越美國中大西洋地區，預計只會逐漸減弱。

熱帶風暴力量的風向中心向外延伸達125英里（205公里）
。NOAA浮標41004最近報告說，持續風速
為60 mph（96 km / h），而持續的熱帶風暴力量風
據報導，在查爾斯頓和
喬治敦之間的南卡羅來納州海岸。

基於飛機和浮標數據的最小中心壓力為988
mb（29.18英寸）。NOAA浮標41004最近報告了最低
壓力988.9 mb（29.20英寸）。


影響土地的危害
----------
以
賽亞斯的關鍵信息可以在熱帶氣旋討論中的AWIPS頭MIATCDAT4，WMO頭WTNT44 KNHC
以及網址為www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml。

風暴潮：危險的風暴潮和
潮汐的結合將導致海岸附近通常乾燥的地區被
從海岸線向內陸移動的上升水淹沒。水可以
如果在漲潮時出現峰值激增
，請在指定區域的某個地方達到以下海拔高度。

南桑特河SC至Cape Fear NC ... 3-5英尺

Folly Beach SC至南桑特河SC .. .2-4英尺

海角恐懼北卡羅來納州到北卡羅來納州/弗吉尼亞州邊界，包括帕米利科
灣，阿爾伯馬爾灣，尼茲河和帕米利科河... 2-4英尺

薩凡納河至福利海灘SC ...

北部以北1-3英尺卡羅來納州/弗吉尼亞州邊境馬撒葡萄園島
，包括切薩皮克灣，潮汐波托馬克河，特拉華灣，
長島，布洛克島聲音，納拉甘西特灣，肉食
灣和葡萄園聲音...... 1-3英尺

沿會發生積水最深在...附近的海岸
陸上風，那裡的浪潮將伴隨著大浪。
與浪湧有關的洪水取決於浪湧
和潮汐週期的相對時間，並且在短距離內變化很大。
有關您所在地區的信息，請參閱
您當地的國家氣象服務預報辦公室發布的產品。

風：預計
今晚和今晚在南卡羅來納州和北卡羅來納州的颶風預警區內會出現颶風
，隨後數小時
內熱帶風暴將在陸上蔓延。
從北卡羅來納州沿海地區到
大西洋中部各州，包括切薩皮克灣的部分地區，熱帶風暴警告地區

預計會有廣泛的熱帶風暴條件
地區，今晚和星期二，可能有陣風到颶風
。這些風可能會造成樹木損壞和斷電。

預計熱帶風暴條件將在
周二下午到達新英格蘭南部，並在周二晚上
和周三初到達新英格蘭北部。

降雨：在以賽亞斯
附近及其附近地區，預計會有以下降雨積聚：

卡羅來納州和中大西洋地區：3至6英寸，孤立的最大
總量為8英寸。

從康涅狄格州到
新罕布什爾州的紐約東部和新英格蘭西部：2到4英寸，孤立的最大值總計6英寸。

緬因州西部和北部：1到3英寸。

在以賽亞斯小徑附近的東海岸，將有大量降雨
導致山洪暴發和城市洪水氾濫，其中部分地區可能
在
周三之前在卡羅來納州東部，大西洋中部和東北部均十分嚴重。
卡羅來納州和大西洋中部的部分地區可能會氾濫成災的中小河。
東北快速響應的河流也容易受到
輕微河道洪水的影響。

龍捲風：
到今晚凌晨
，在南卡羅來納州東北部沿海地區附近可能會發生幾場龍捲風，然後於今晚至週二上午在北卡羅萊納州東部蔓延。
從星期二開始，從弗吉尼亞
東部到東北到新英格蘭南部可能會發生幾場龍捲風。

衝浪：以賽亞斯產生的海浪正在影響
巴哈馬的部分地區和美國的東南海岸，並將
在接下來的幾天內沿美國東海岸向北擴散。
這些膨脹很可能導致危及生命的海浪和翻滾
電流狀況。請諮詢當地氣象
局的產品。


下次諮詢
-------------
下次完整諮詢是在美國東部時間1100 PM。

$$
預報員Beven

NNNN

天篷大元帥

颶風登陸
目前在美利堅合眾國北卡羅來納州的陸地上


原文：

ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1115 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye of
Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina
around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with maximum
sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).

A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140
km/h).

A data buoy near the coast of North Carolina has recently reported
a minimum pressure of 988 MB (29.18 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky/Beven

NNNN

機器翻譯(翻譯粗劣 僅參考)：

ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Isaias熱帶氣旋更新
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1115 PM EDT Mon 2020年8月3日

多普勒雷達圖像和地面觀測表明，
Isaias颶風的眼睛在
美國東部時間1110 PM EDT 降落在北卡羅來納州南部（0310 UTC ）在大洋島海灘附近，最大
持續風速為85英里/小時（140公里/小時）。

北卡羅來納州橡樹島的一個氣象站最近報告說，
持續風速為76英里/小時（122公里/小時），陣風為87英里/小時（140
公里/小時）。

北卡羅萊納州海岸附近的一個數據浮標最近報告
了最低壓力為988 MB（29.18英寸）。

1115 PM EDT的摘要... 0315 UTC ...信息
------------------------------------ -----------
位置... 33.9N 78.4W約
40英里... 65 英里威明頓北卡羅萊納州
最大可持續風量... 85英里/小時... 140公里/小時
當前移動。 .NNE或20英里/小時，每小時22英里... 35 KM / H
最低中央壓力... 988 MB ... 29.18英寸

$$
Forecaster Brown / Zelinsky / Beven

NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC03Z判定已轉化為溫帶氣旋

747
WTNT44 KNHC 050246
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Satellite and radar data, along with surface observations, indicate
that Isaias has lost its tropical cyclone characteristics as it
merges with a weak baroclinic zone over New England and
southeastern Canada.  Thus, it is being designated a post-tropical
cyclone.  The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based mainly on
a recent observation at the Isle of Shoals, New Hampshire, and
these winds are occurring over the Gulf of Maine well to the
southeast of the center.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to
weaken further, with winds dropping below 35 kt early tomorrow.  
After that, the system is forecast to be absorbed into a large
baroclinic low over southeastern Canada between 36-48 h.

The initial motion remains north-northeastward or 020/33 kt.  A
continued general north-northeastward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected until the cyclone is absorbed by the
larger low.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast and is in the center of the tightly-clustered track
guidance models.

While Isaias is now post-tropical, the National Hurricane Center
will continue to issue advisories until the Tropical Storm Warning
can be discontinued along the coast of the United States.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm force winds that could cause tree damage and power
outages will continue over portions of New England for a few more
hours.

2. As the rainfall exits the United States, scattered minor to
moderate and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers falling below
flood stage Wednesday.  Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast
will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river
flooding.

3.  The threat of tornadoes will continue over portions of Maine
for a few more hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 45.3N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H  05/1200Z 49.1N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  06/0000Z 52.6N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  06/1200Z 54.0N  68.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven