老農民版夜神月

MFR15/18Z隨即降格Jeruto為熱帶低壓,距離其升格為中度熱帶風暴並命名僅12小時

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 15/04/2020 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (JERUTO) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 83.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 165 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.9 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H, VALID 2020/04/16 AT 18 UTC:
17.8 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, REMNANT LOW
OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

霧峰追風者

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JERUTO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (JERUTO) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 83.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 83.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 17.0S 81.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 82.7E.
15APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (JERUTO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 828
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A FAINT, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) SHEARED 165NM TO THE NORTH WEST OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTION. A 151630Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATING
CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY 30 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION,
WITH A FEW ISOLATED 35 KT WIND BARBS. SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS ARE
NOT WRAPPING AROUND INTO THE SYSTEM, BUT ARE DUE TO GRADIENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH. THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SHOWS 10-15 KT WINDS, WITH AN
ISOLATED AREA OF 20 KTS TO THE EAST SIDE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, ABOVE  
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) AND IN
LINE WITH THE FMEE CI OF T2.5 (35 KTS). TC 26S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE STORM
MOTION DIRECTLY OPPOSES THE SHEAR VECTOR, SO THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FELT
BY THE SYSTEM IS MUCH GREATER, AS REFLECTED IN THE DISPLACEMENT
BETWEEN THE LLCC AND CONVECTION. THE EXTREME EFFECTIVE VWS WILL
OVERCOME THE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO CONTINUED UNRAVELING AND DISSIPATION
BY TAU 12. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 26S WILL TRACK ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU
12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 13 FEET.
//
NNNN